2026 Election Candidates Emerge: Businesses Should Monitor Policy Platforms for Operational Impact

The Change

The official period for candidates to file for the 2026 elections begins on February 2, 2024. This date marks the formal commencement of the process for individuals seeking to appear on the ballot for state and county offices. While the elections are two years away, the emergence of declared candidates and their initial policy stances will begin to define the future regulatory and economic environment in Hawaii. Businesses that depend on stable operating conditions, predictable regulations, and supportive economic policies should view this as the start of a crucial monitoring period.

Who's Affected

Virtually every business leader in Hawaii has a stake in the upcoming election cycle, as candidates' platforms will directly influence the business climate.

• Small Business Operators: New candidates may propose changes to minimum wage laws, business taxes, permitting processes, or regulatory requirements that could increase operating costs or create new compliance burdens. Conversely, some may champion initiatives to support local businesses. Monitoring these proposals and engaging early can influence outcomes.
• Real Estate Owners: Zoning, land use, property tax policies, and development regulations are frequent campaign issues. Candidates' stances on affordable housing, tourism development, or environmental protections could significantly impact property values and development opportunities.
• Investors: The policy directions advocated by candidates can signal future market conditions, attractiveness for investment, and the regulatory landscape for various sectors. Early indicators can help investors anticipate shifts in economic growth, specific industry support (or opposition), and overall risk profiles.
• Tourism Operators: Policies affecting visitor arrivals, tourism taxes, short-term rental regulations, and infrastructure development (like airport capacity or transportation) will be central to many campaigns. Candidates' approaches to managing tourism's impacts will directly affect this sector.
• Entrepreneurs & Startups: Access to funding, availability of skilled labor, regulatory frameworks for new industries (like tech or biotech), and overall economic growth policies are critical. Candidates' support for innovation ecosystems will be a key watchpoint.
• Agriculture & Food Producers: Land use policies, water rights, agricultural incentives, and export/import regulations (including those related to the Jones Act) are often debated during election cycles. Candidates' priorities on food security and local production will be relevant.
• Healthcare Providers: Licensing, insurance regulations, telehealth policies, and healthcare access initiatives are often within the purview of elected officials. Changes in these areas can affect operational costs, patient access, and the viability of different care models.

Second-Order Effects

As Hawaii operates within a unique, island-bound economy, shifts in policy preferences driven by election cycles can have cascading effects:

• Policy Debate on Tourism Capacity → Stricter Rental Regulations → Reduced Investment in Hospitality Sector → Slower Local Job Growth in Support Services
• Increased Candidate Focus on Affordable Housing → Zoning Reforms → Altered Land Use Patterns → Impact on Commercial Property Development & Investor Returns
• Proposals for Higher Corporate Taxes → Reduced Business Profitability → Lower Reinvestment Capacity → Slower Economic Diversification Efforts

What to Do

Given the "WATCH" action level, the immediate priority is information gathering and strategic monitoring. Proactive engagement will be key as campaigns gain momentum.

• All Impacted Roles: Begin tracking candidate websites, public statements, and campaign events. Identify candidates whose platforms align with or diverge from your business interests. Consider forming or joining industry coalitions to articulate collective concerns and policy recommendations.
• Small Business Operators: Pay close attention to proposals regarding minimum wage adjustments, local business incentives, and permitting efficiency. Engage with candidates to highlight the specific needs and challenges of small businesses in your sector.
• Real Estate Owners: Monitor discussions around property taxes, zoning changes, and development incentives. Understand how proposed policies might affect property values and rental markets.
• Investors: Analyze candidate platforms for their potential impact on Hawaii's economic growth trajectory, regulatory stability, and specific industry sectors. Look for commitments to fostering a favorable investment climate.
• Tourism Operators: Track candidate positions on tourism management, visitor fees, and infrastructure development. Early engagement can help shape discussions around sustainable tourism practices.
• Entrepreneurs & Startups: Focus on candidates who advocate for innovation funding, workforce development, and regulatory reforms that support new businesses. Seek opportunities to educate candidates on the needs of the startup ecosystem.
• Agriculture & Food Producers: Monitor discussions on land use, water resources, and agricultural support programs. Advocate for policies that promote local food production and resilience.
• Healthcare Providers: Keep abreast of proposals related to healthcare access, insurance mandates, and regulatory changes affecting the delivery of care. Understand how candidates plan to address healthcare challenges.

Action Details: Monitor campaign announcements, policy papers, and candidate forums over the next 18 months. Pay attention to any proposed legislation or regulatory changes discussed by leading candidates. If a candidate or party platform emerges with specific, actionable policies that directly threaten your operating model (e.g., significant tax increases, overly restrictive new regulations), plan a more targeted engagement strategy, which may include direct outreach, campaign contributions (where permissible), or public advocacy by Q3 2025.