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Above-Normal Hurricane Season Outlook Requires Business Preparedness Adjustments

·7 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

NOAA's 2026 hurricane season outlook indicates a higher probability of activity, requiring businesses to review and potentially update their severe weather contingency plans. Proactive risk mitigation is advised for operational continuity.

  • Small Business Operators: Increased risk of property damage and business interruption necessitates updated emergency supply chains and remote work capabilities.
  • Real Estate Owners: Property damage and potential insurance claim increases warrant enhanced maintenance and review of tenant agreements.
  • Tourism Operators: Disruptions to travel and visitor safety protocols need immediate review.
  • Agriculture & Food Producers: Crop and infrastructure damage risk requires strengthened resilience plans.
  • Action: Watch supply chain resilience and insurance policy adequacy over the next 60 days.

Watch & Prepare

Medium Priority

While the season starts later, ignoring preparedness plans could lead to significant disruptions and financial losses if a storm impacts Hawaii.

Watch your insurance policy adequacy and your primary supply chain resilience over the next 60 days. If your insurance deductible for named storms significantly exceeds 1% of the insured value, or if key suppliers report weakened inventory or logistics, consider identifying alternative suppliers or exploring supplementary insurance options before August 1st.

Who's Affected
Small Business OperatorsReal Estate OwnersTourism OperatorsAgriculture & Food Producers
Ripple Effects
  • →Increased storm activity → property damage → higher insurance premiums for real estate owners
  • →Potential tourism disruptions → reduced visitor spending → impact on small business revenue
  • →Supply chain strain (agriculture, retail) → potential local price increases for goods
  • →Infrastructure damage → delays in recovery and increased costs for essential services
Debris and destruction on a beach after a hurricane with waves crashing ashore, showcasing nature's power.
Photo by Artem Makarov

Above-Normal Hurricane Season Outlook Requires Business Preparedness Adjustments

An elevated hurricane season outlook for Hawaii in 2026 means businesses across critical sectors must reassess and potentially strengthen their preparedness strategies. NOAA's forecast points to a 70 percent probability of higher-than-average hurricane activity, necessitating a proactive approach to mitigate potential disruptions.

The Change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2026 Hurricane Season Outlook, predicting an "above-normal" season for Hawaii. The outlook, issued in May 2026, forecasts a 70 percent chance of greater than average storm activity, with a potential for 5 to 13 combined named storms and tropical depressions. While this is a probabilistic forecast for the season ahead, it signals an increased risk that warrants immediate attention from businesses potentially in the path of these storms.

Who's Affected

Small Business Operators

Businesses such as restaurants, retail shops, and service providers face direct threats from potential property damage, supply chain disruptions, and loss of operational capacity due to power outages or facility closures. An above-normal season increases the likelihood of impacts from significant weather events, potentially leading to substantial revenue loss and increased operational costs for repairs and inventory replacement. Having robust emergency supply chains and considering employees' ability to work remotely or access essential services will be paramount.

Real Estate Owners

Property owners, developers, and landlords must consider increased risks of storm-related damage to their assets. This includes potential structural damage, flooding, and increased insurance premiums. Reviewing property maintenance schedules, securing vulnerable assets, and ensuring adequate insurance coverage are critical. For landlords, it may mean reassessing tenant agreements to clarify responsibilities during and after severe weather events.

Tourism Operators

Hawaii's economy is heavily reliant on tourism, making this sector particularly vulnerable. Hotels, tour companies, and vacation rental operators need to prepare for potential cancellations, disruptions to transportation, and the paramount need to ensure visitor safety. Updated evacuation plans, communication protocols with guests, and contingency plans for extended travel disruptions are essential. An active storm season could lead to significant booking cancellations and a negative impact on visitor arrivals.

Agriculture & Food Producers

Farmers, ranchers, and food producers are on the front lines of weather impacts. Crop damage, loss of livestock, and damage to critical infrastructure like irrigation systems and storage facilities are significant concerns. For those involved in export, disruptions to port operations and shipping logistics can halt critical revenue streams. Strengthening resilience in farming operations, securing food storage, and diversifying crop yields where possible will be important.

Second-Order Effects

An active hurricane season can trigger a cascade of economic impacts in Hawaii's isolated environment. For instance, significant storm damage could lead to temporary disruptions in key agricultural exports, straining established supply chains. This, coupled with increased demand for essential goods and repair services, could drive up local prices for food and materials. Reduced tourism due to storm threats can impact the service industry, potentially leading to temporary job losses or reduced hours, which in turn affects consumer spending across the islands. Furthermore, widespread infrastructure damage could delay recovery efforts and increase the cost of essential services like electricity and water, impacting 'small business operators' ongoing operating expenses.

What to Do

Given the NOAA's outlook for an above-normal hurricane season, businesses should adopt a WATCH stance, focusing on preparedness and risk assessment over the next few months. The season officially begins June 1st and extends through November 30th, with peak activity often occurring from August to October. The following actions are recommended:

  • Small Business Operators: Review and update your business continuity and disaster preparedness plans. Ensure emergency contact lists are current for staff and key suppliers. Assess your inventory of emergency supplies and consider the resilience of your supply chains – can they withstand disruptions? Explore options for remote work capabilities if applicable.
  • Real Estate Owners: Conduct a thorough inspection of properties for potential vulnerabilities (e.g., roofing, drainage, windows). Review your insurance policies to ensure adequate coverage for storm damage and understand any limitations or deductibles. Communicate relevant preparedness measures to tenants.
  • Tourism Operators: Review and update your emergency action plans, including guest communication protocols, evacuation procedures, and staff training. Coordinate with local emergency management agencies and monitor advisories from the National Weather Service and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
  • Agriculture & Food Producers: Assess the vulnerability of crops, livestock, and farm infrastructure to high winds and heavy rainfall. Secure storage facilities and backup power sources. Review distribution and logistics plans for potential disruptions.

The critical period for most activity is later in the year, but preparedness is an ongoing process. Begin these reviews now to ensure plans are robust and readily deployable before potential impacts arise later in the season.

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