Coastal Businesses Face Immediate Disruptions and Property Risks from Extreme Surf Conditions

An extra-large northwest swell is driving extreme surf conditions, with waves expected to reach up to 35 feet on north shores, triggering a high surf warning across much of Hawaii through Tuesday. This event demands immediate attention from businesses operating on or near the coast, as it presents direct risks to property, operational continuity, and customer safety. Coastal access may be severely limited, and the potential for significant infrastructure damage is high.

The Change

A powerful northwest swell, intensified by a cold front, has generated a high surf warning for the north and west-facing shores of Hawaii. This warning is in effect through Tuesday, January 14, 2026. The National Weather Service is forecasting waves to reach heights of 25-35 feet, with the potential for even larger sets. accompanying conditions include strong onshore winds and the possibility of heavy rainfall, further complicating coastal operations and increasing the risk of flash flooding near vulnerable shorelines.

Who's Affected

Tourism Operators

Businesses reliant on beachfront locations, such as hotels, resorts, bed and breakfasts, and vacation rentals, face direct impacts. Expect significant cancellations due to inaccessibility or safety concerns. Coastal erosion and wave overtopping can cause immediate damage to property, including seawalls, patios, and ground-floor units. Tour operators offering ocean-based activities, particularly along north and west shores, will likely need to suspend operations. This could lead to financial losses for the duration of the event and potential reputational damage if safety protocols are not rigorously enforced. Airline capacity is unlikely to be immediately affected, but ground transportation to coastal areas may face delays.

Real Estate Owners

Owners of coastal properties, including commercial buildings, beachfront homes, and undeveloped land, are at the highest risk. Overtopping waves and increased erosion can cause significant damage to foundations, structures, and landscaping. Proactive measures to protect assets are critical. Rental property owners need to assess tenant safety and potential liability. Developers with ongoing coastal construction projects should halt work in exposed areas and ensure sites are secured against wave action and debris. Property managers must coordinate emergency responses and communication with tenants.

Small Business Operators

Beyond tourism, small businesses along or near affected coastlines, such as restaurants, retail shops, and service providers, may experience disruptions. Access to these businesses could be limited by flooded roadways or debris. Foot traffic may decline due to the dangerous conditions. Supply chain disruptions are possible if ports or coastal transport routes are affected. Staffing could be impacted if employees cannot safely travel to work. Businesses with outdoor seating or operations near the water need to secure their premises and equipment immediately.

Agriculture & Food Producers

While less directly impacted than coastal tourism or real estate, some agricultural operations could face consequences. Coastal aquaculture farms are at risk of damage or loss of stock due to extremely rough seas. Transport of agricultural goods via coastal routes or inter-island shipping relying on exposed docks may experience delays. Inland operations should monitor runoff and potential impacts from heavier rainfall associated with the weather system.

Second-Order Effects

Extreme surf events can trigger a cascade of economic impacts in Hawaii's constrained island economy. For instance, extensive damage to beachfront hotels and vacation rentals → reduced tourism capacity and revenue → decreased demand for local services (restaurants, tours, retail) → potential layoffs in the hospitality sector → lower consumer spending across the islands → increased pressure on small business margins and potentially slower wage growth for non-essential service workers.

Simultaneously, significant coastal erosion and property damage → increased demand for construction and repair services → higher material and labor costs for rebuilding → potential for insurance premium increases for coastal properties → reduced property values in highly vulnerable areas.

What to Do

Given the high surf warning and immediate nature of the threat, immediate action is required.

Tourism Operators

Act Now:

1. Review and update your cancellation and refund policies: Communicate transparently with guests booked for the coming days. Offer flexible rescheduling options.
2. Secure beachfront property: Move all outdoor furniture, equipment, and movable assets away from the surf zone. Reinforce windows and doors if necessary.
3. Develop operational contingency plans: Designate safe indoor areas for guests if outdoor activities are impossible. Have a plan for staff safety and access.
4. Monitor surf reports and local advisances: Be prepared to extend operational suspensions if conditions worsen or persist beyond Tuesday.

Real Estate Owners

Act Now:

1. Immediately secure all coastal properties: Board up windows, remove loose items from yards and balconies, and reinforce any vulnerable structures.
2. Inspect and, if necessary, deploy temporary flood barriers: For properties at high risk of inundation.
3. Contact your insurance provider: Document existing conditions and understand your coverage for storm damage and potential business interruption.
4. Notify tenants: Provide clear safety instructions and emergency contact information.

Small Business Operators

Act Now:

1. Secure outdoor signage and equipment: Ensure anything outside is tied down or brought inside.
2. Assess access routes: Monitor local traffic reports for potential road closures or flooding impacting employee and customer access.
3. Review staffing schedules: Prepare for potential understaffing if employees cannot commute safely. Have remote work options available if applicable.
4. Communicate with suppliers: Inquire about potential delays in deliveries.

Agriculture & Food Producers

Watch:

1. Monitor coastal conditions if operating near the shore: Ensure any exposed equipment or infrastructure is secured.
2. Check logistics providers for potential delays: If relying on coastal ports or transport for inputs or outputs.
3. Review drainage and runoff plans if anticipating heavy inland rainfall.

Action Details: Coastal businesses and property owners must secure all vulnerable assets and review operational continuity plans by Tuesday, January 14, 2026, to mitigate immediate risks of property damage and business interruption. Tourism operators should prioritize guest safety and communication regarding cancellations and service disruptions.