The Change
A powerful northwest swell, combined with a strong cold front, has generated dangerously high surf conditions with wave heights reaching up to 45 feet along Hawaii's north-facing shores. This has triggered a high surf warning across most islands. Concurrently, stiff and gusty winds are present on Hawaii Island's summits. These conditions are immediate and expected to persist for the next 48-72 hours, posing significant risks to maritime activities, coastal infrastructure, and public safety.
Who's Affected
Tourism Operators (Hotels, Tour Companies, Vacation Rentals) Operators of water-based activities such as surfing, snorkeling, and boat tours on north and west shores must cease operations immediately. Wave heights of this magnitude pose extreme danger and risk of equipment damage. Beachfront hotels and vacation rentals should actively monitor coastal erosion and wave inundation. Guest safety is paramount; outdoor activities and beach access may need to be restricted or closed entirely. Communication with guests regarding the risks and any necessary cancellations or changes to itineraries is crucial. Airline capacity is unlikely to be immediately affected, but inter-island ferry services may experience delays or cancellations depending on sea state.
Real Estate Owners (Coastal Properties, Developers, Landlords) Coastal properties, particularly those at lower elevations or with direct oceanfront access, are highly susceptible to damage from large waves and storm surge. Owners should conduct immediate assessments of their properties, looking for signs of erosion, damage to seawalls, or structural integrity concerns. Secure any outdoor furniture, equipment, or vulnerable structures. Property managers must inform tenants of the risks and advise on safety measures. Developers with active construction near the coast should review site safety protocols and consider halting any exterior work that could be impacted by high winds or waves.
Small Business Operators (Coastal Retail, Restaurants, Service Businesses) Businesses located in coastal areas or relying on coastal access for customers may experience a significant drop in foot traffic. Supply chain logistics could also be impacted if port operations are temporarily suspended or scaled back due to rough seas. Owners of waterfront restaurants or shops should be prepared for potential closures or reduced operating hours. Ensure any outdoor signage or amenities are secured against high winds. Assess potential for minor flood damage if businesses are in low-lying coastal zones.
Second-Order Effects
High surf and strong winds → Immediate cancellations of boating and snorkeling tours → Reduced visitor spending on experiential activities → Lower immediate revenue for tour operators and associated businesses.
Dangerous surf and potential coastal erosion → Increased insurance claims for coastal properties → Higher premiums for real estate owners and possibly businesses in vulnerable zones → Potential long-term impact on property values and development feasibility.
Port and harbor disruptions due to rough seas → Delays in cargo and supply deliveries → Increased operating costs for businesses reliant on imports → Potential upward pressure on local prices for goods.
What to Do
Tourism Operators:
- Action: Immediately suspend all ocean-based tours and activities on affected north and west shores. Ensure all watercraft are secured and consider moving them to higher ground if possible. Communicate clearly and proactively with booked guests about cancellations and reschedule options. Monitor beach access for your properties and implement closures if conditions warrant. Conduct immediate safety inspections of all beachfront facilities for storm surge and wind damage potential.
Real Estate Owners:
- Action: Conduct an immediate visual inspection of your property for signs of erosion or wave damage, especially to seawalls, foundations, and landscaping. Secure all loose outdoor items promptly. Review your insurance policy to understand coverage for storm damage and report any immediate concerns to your provider. Advise tenants or short-term renters of the hazardous conditions and recommended safety precautions.
Small Business Operators:
- Action: Secure any outdoor signage, seating, or merchandise. Monitor local weather advisories closely and be prepared to adjust operating hours or close temporarily if conditions worsen, especially for businesses in low-lying coastal areas. Communicate any operational changes to customers via social media and your website. Review your inventory for potential damage from wind-blown debris or minor flooding, and ensure emergency contact information for your suppliers is readily available.
General Business Preparedness:
- Action: All businesses, especially those in coastal areas, should review their emergency preparedness plans. This includes ensuring communication channels with staff and customers are functional, having backup power solutions if applicable, and confirming insurance coverage details. Stay informed through official advisories.
