DBEDT Forecasts Modest Economic Growth for Hawaii in 2026, Signaling Cautious Optimism

·4 min read

The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) in Hawaii has updated its economic outlook, projecting a 1.5% growth rate for 2026. This revised forecast, detailed in the 2025 Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report, reflects a somewhat tempered but still positive outlook for the state's economy.

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Hawaii's economic landscape is showing signs of continued, albeit tempered, growth according to the latest projections from the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT). The 2025 Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report, released recently, revises the economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5%. This follows an upward revision for 2025, now estimated at 1.6% growth. This news offers valuable insights for Hawaii's entrepreneurs and investors as they navigate the evolving economic climate.

This forecast, as outlined by Maui Now's report, indicates a sustained period of growth, albeit at a more moderate pace than some might have hoped. DBEDT's projections are crucial for businesses in Hawaii, influencing strategic planning and investment decisions. The report's detailed analysis provides a basis for understanding the complexities facing the state's economy, including factors like tourism trends, inflation, and labor market dynamics.

The DBEDT's assessment considers various sectors contributing to Hawaii's economic health. Notably, the report highlights the performance of key industries, offering a granular view for investors. For instance, the construction sector's momentum and the strength in non-tourism industries are vital, as DBEDT's previous reports have indicated. The report also closely monitors the impact of global factors such as tariffs and international economic conditions, which influence Hawaii's economic trajectory. Given the state's dependence on tourism, the report offers crucial perspectives on the sector's recovery and the visitor spending's influence on the broader economy.

Furthermore, the report's insights into inflation and labor market conditions provide critical context for local businesses. According to DBEDT's economic outlook, understanding these trends allows business leaders to make informed decisions about pricing, employment, and overall operational strategies. The report's analysis of visitor arrivals, spending, and the construction sector's continued expansion suggests a balanced outlook, signaling opportunities and challenges for various sectors in Hawaii's economy.

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