Hawaii Businesses Face Shifting Consumer Habits: Adapt Now for 2026 Competitiveness

A recent economic outlook webinar featuring Morning Consult Chief Economist John Leer and the Business Journal team has outlined significant shifts in consumer expectations and economic evolution for 2026. This foresight is crucial for businesses across Hawaii to recalibrate strategies, anticipate market changes, and maintain competitiveness in an increasingly dynamic economic landscape. The insights underscore the need for immediate strategic planning to capitalize on emergent trends and mitigate potential disruptions.

The Change

The core of the "What businesses should expect in 2026" webinar, held on January 14, 2026, revolves around granular insights into evolving consumer behavior and macroeconomic forces expected to shape the coming year. While specific details were presented in a member-exclusive format, the overarching message points to a business environment demanding greater adaptability, a keen understanding of changing value propositions, and strategic navigation of economic uncertainties. This isn't about reacting to a single event, but rather about understanding the continuous evolution of the market and consumer preferences, which have been influenced by recent global and local economic factors.

Who's Affected

This analysis of 2026 economic trends has broad implications for Hawaii's diverse business sectors:

• Small Business Operators: Will need to closely examine pricing strategies and service offerings. Shifting consumer priorities may favor value, convenience, or sustainability, impacting margins for restaurants, retail shops, and service providers.
• Real Estate Owners: Evolving consumer and business needs might influence demand for different types of commercial and residential spaces. Trends in remote work, demand for experiential retail, and shifts in tourism could affect property values and lease negotiations.
• Investors: Need to assess portfolio alignment with projected consumer trends. Sectors showing resilience or growth due to these shifts (e.g., experiential tourism, sustainable goods, tech-enabled services) may present new opportunities, while others might face headwinds.
• Tourism Operators: Must anticipate changes in traveler preferences. Beyond price, factors like unique experiences, perceived value, and digital integration will likely play a larger role in destination choices.
• Entrepreneurs & Startups: Identifying unmet needs arising from these consumer shifts will be critical for market entry and growth. Businesses offering innovative solutions aligned with evolving expectations, particularly those leveraging technology, may find fertile ground.
• Agriculture & Food Producers: Consumer demand for traceable, sustainable, and locally sourced food products is likely to strengthen. Producers who can effectively market these attributes may see increased demand.
• Healthcare Providers: Shifts in consumer expectations could impact demand for telehealth services, wellness programs, and personalized healthcare experiences. Providers need to remain agile in adapting their service models.

Second-Order Effects

Hawaii's unique island economy amplifies the ripple effects of these consumer and economic shifts:

• **Shifting consumer demand towards value/experience → Increased competition for discretionary spending → Pressure on tourism operators to innovate offerings → Potential strain on local infrastructure and labor from increased visitor engagement.
• **Economic evolution favoring digital services and remote work trends → Increased demand for high-speed internet and flexible workspaces → Potential displacement of traditional retail or office space demand → Evolving real estate investment opportunities and challenges.
• **Consumer emphasis on sustainability and local sourcing → Increased demand for Hawaii-grown products → Potential pressure on agricultural land use and water resources → Opportunities for value-added agricultural processing and direct-to-consumer models.

What to Do

Proactive engagement with these forecasted trends is paramount for business continuity and growth in 2026. The insights from the webinar serve as a call to action, particularly for those looking to optimize their strategic plans over the coming months.

• Small Business Operators: Begin immediate review of your 2026 strategic plan. If consumer focus is shifting towards value, analyze your cost structure for potential efficiencies. If experiential elements are gaining traction, explore how to enhance customer engagement without significantly increasing overhead. Consider piloting new service offerings or pricing models in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 to gauge market response.

• Real Estate Owners: Engage with current tenants to understand their evolving business needs for 2026. If data suggests a shift towards experiential retail or flexible office solutions, assess the adaptability of your property portfolio and consider minor renovations or reconfigurations to meet potential new demands. Monitor commercial vacancy rates in markets experiencing rapid consumer shifts.

• Investors: Re-evaluate your investment thesis for Hawaii-based businesses. Prioritize due diligence on companies demonstrating agility in adapting to changing consumer expectations, particularly those in sectors poised for growth like sustainable tourism, local food systems, or technology-enabled services. Look for scalability and a clear strategy for value delivery in 2026.

• Tourism Operators: Conduct a thorough review of your current product and service offerings. Identify areas where you can enhance the perceived value or unique experience for visitors in 2026, perhaps through partnerships, digital integration, or highlighting local culture and sustainability. Gather customer feedback on what aspects of their travel experience are most valued going forward.

• Entrepreneurs & Startups: Use forecasted consumer trends to refine your value proposition and identify niche market opportunities for 2026. Focus on solutions that address emerging pain points or unmet desires related to value, convenience, or unique experiences. Begin testing market fit and solidifying funding strategies with investor pitches that clearly articulate how your offering aligns with the 2026 economic landscape.

• Agriculture & Food Producers: Explore opportunities to enhance the