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Hawaii Tourism Operators Face Shoulder Season Revenue Gap as PGA Tour Departs

·4 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

The PGA Tour will no longer open its season in Hawaii starting in 2026, removing a key segment of high-spending, shoulder-season visitors. Tourism operators must now find alternative strategies to fill the void and mitigate potential revenue losses.

  • Tourism Operators: Expect a reduction in high-yield visitor traffic during traditionally slower months.
  • Investors: Monitor broader tourism trends for shifts in seasonal demand and investment opportunities.
  • Real Estate Owners: Assess potential impacts on hospitality-focused property values and rental demand.
  • Action: Begin recalibrating marketing efforts and exploring new visitor segments for the affected periods.

Watch & Prepare

High Priority

The loss affects upcoming tourism seasons and requires immediate recalibration of marketing and business strategies for affected operators.

Tourism operators should begin recalibrating marketing strategies and exploring new visitor segments for the January/February period. Strengthen relationships with airlines and travel agents, and consider developing new packages tailored to diverse interests. Investors should monitor visitor arrival data and new tourism initiatives. Real estate owners should review leasing strategies for hospitality-related properties.

Who's Affected
Tourism OperatorsInvestorsReal Estate Owners
Ripple Effects
  • →Reduced high-net-worth visitor traffic during shoulder season → lower demand for luxury accommodations → potential rate decreases
  • →Need for new visitor segments → increased marketing costs for operators → potential investment in niche tourism development
  • →Lower seasonal demand → impact on hospitality staffing → potential pressure on wage growth
A man tees off at a seaside golf course, enjoying a sunny day and ocean view.
Photo by Sebastian Luna

Hawaii Tourism Operators Face Shoulder Season Revenue Gap as PGA Tour Departs

The PGA Tour has ended its 56-year tradition of opening its season in Hawaii, with the final tournament set to take place in early 2025. This marks a significant shift in the state's traditional tourism calendar, removing a reliable influx of high-spending visitors during the shoulder season. The PGA Tour cited a desire for logistical changes and new market opportunities as reasons for the move, impacting Hawaii's strategy for attracting premium tourism segments.

Who's Affected

  • Tourism Operators: Hotels, golf courses, rental car companies, restaurants, and tour operators that relied on the influx of PGA Tour players, their entourages, and associated spectators will experience a direct revenue shortfall. This is particularly impactful for the period traditionally occupied by the tournament, often falling in January after the peak December holiday season. The absence of this event could lead to lower occupancy rates and decreased spending during this critical shoulder period.

  • Investors: Investors in Hawaii's tourism sector should monitor this development closely. The departure of a well-established, high-value event signals a potential shift in the state's ability to attract similar premium tourism segments. This might affect the projected returns for businesses heavily reliant on this demographic, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies and the potential for new niche tourism markets to emerge or gain traction.

  • Real Estate Owners: While less direct, commercial real estate owners, particularly those with hospitality-focused properties in areas that historically benefited from PGA Tour traffic (e.g., Kapolei, Maui), may see a muted demand for short-term rentals or event-related services. This could translate to slower rental uptake or downward pressure on rates during the affected timeframes, necessitating a broader marketing approach to attract diverse visitor segments.

Second-Order Effects

The PGA Tour's departure creates a ripple effect. The reduction in high-net-worth visitors during the shoulder season means less demand for luxury accommodations and services. This could lead to increased availability of hotel rooms, potentially driving down rates. For tourism operators, this necessitates a sharper focus on alternative marketing strategies to attract different visitor demographics. A sustained decline in shoulder-season demand could eventually impact the employment levels in the hospitality sector, potentially leading to softer wage growth or even reductions in staffing if not offset by new visitor streams.

What to Do

Action: Tourism Operators should begin recalibrating marketing strategies and exploring new visitor segments for the affected periods. Investors should monitor evolving tourism demand. Real Estate Owners should assess potential impacts on hospitality-focused properties.

  • Tourism Operators: This is a critical time to reassess your marketing and sales strategies for the January/February period. Focus on attracting new demographics or regional markets that may not have previously considered Hawaii during the traditional PGA Tour window. Consider developing new packages or promotions tailored to different interests, such as wellness tourism, adventure travel, or cultural experiences. Strengthen relationships with airlines and travel agents to ensure continued visitor flow.

  • Investors: Monitor visitor arrival data for the shoulder season in the coming years, paying close attention to average daily rates and occupancy in key tourism hubs. Track any new events or tourism initiatives the Hawaii Tourism Authority launches to fill the void. Be prepared to adjust investment portfolios if a sustained downturn in this specific visitor segment is observed.

  • Real Estate Owners: Review leasing strategies for hospitality-related properties. If you own accommodation or commercial spaces in areas that previously saw a boost from the PGA Tour, consider diversifying your tenant mix or marketing more broadly to attract non-golf tourism segments. This might involve offering incentives or updating property amenities to appeal to a wider range of visitors.

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