Honolulu Crime Increase Triggers Security Review for Businesses and Property Owners

A machete robbery incident in McCully on January 21, 2026, while isolated, could signal a broader trend of increasing crime in Honolulu. This necessitates immediate attention from small business operators and real estate owners to reassess their security protocols and insurance coverage.

The Change

On the early morning of January 21, 2026, Honolulu police responded to a machete-involved robbery in the McCully area. While this specific incident is under investigation, it serves as a potential indicator of a shift in public safety conditions. A sustained increase in such incidents could directly impact the operational environment for businesses and the perceived safety of properties across the island. This isn't an immediate crisis, but a signal to prepare for potential future disruptions.

Who's Affected

Small Business Operators (e.g., retail shops, restaurants, service providers):

Increased Operating Costs: A higher risk of theft, vandalism, or armed robbery could lead to increased expenses for security systems (cameras, alarms, reinforced doors), security personnel, or extended operating hour adjustments. This could translate to a 5-15% increase in annual security-related overhead if a pattern emerges.
Staff Safety Concerns: Employees may feel less safe, potentially impacting morale and retention, or requiring additional safety training and protocols.
Insurance Premiums: A documented rise in local crime could lead to higher commercial property and liability insurance premiums at renewal, potentially by 3-10%.

Real Estate Owners (e.g., landlords, property managers, developers):

Property Security Upgrades: Landlords may face increased demand from tenants for enhanced security measures, such as improved lighting in common areas, better access control systems, or increased on-site security patrols, adding to maintenance costs.
Vacancy Risk: Properties in areas with a perceived increase in crime may become less attractive to prospective tenants, potentially leading to longer vacancy periods or downward pressure on rental rates.
Insurance Costs: Similar to businesses, property owners may see an increase in their insurance premiums due to a higher risk profile.

Second-Order Effects

A sustained increase in crime could lead to several cascading effects within Hawaii's unique island economy:

Increased Security Spending → Reduced Consumer Discretionary Income: Businesses diverting funds to security may have less to invest in marketing or employee benefits, potentially impacting customer acquisition and retention. Customers, noticing higher prices to cover business costs, may reduce spending on non-essential goods and services.
Perceived Unsafe Areas → Reduced Foot Traffic & Tourism Appeal: If specific neighborhoods become known for higher crime, it could deter both local residents from visiting businesses and tourists from exploring certain areas, impacting revenue for businesses reliant on foot traffic. This could indirectly affect the overall tourism accommodation sector by making certain areas less desirable.
Higher Insurance Costs → Inflated Operating Expenses: Across multiple sectors, rising insurance costs due to crime risk will contribute to inflation, potentially pushing consumer prices higher and further straining household budgets.

What to Do

Given the "WATCH" action level, the immediate focus should be on monitoring trends and preparing for potential needs, rather than immediate action. The key is proactive assessment to avoid costly reactive measures later.

Small Business Operators:

Monitor Police Reports: Regularly check Honolulu Police Department crime statistics and news reports for patterns of incidents in your specific area or business type. Consider subscribing to local police department newsletters or community watch alerts.
Review Security Measures: Conduct a self-assessment of your current security measures. Are cameras functional and visible? Is lighting adequate? Are entry points secure? Compare your current setup against industry best practices for your business type.
Insurance Policy Review: Before your next renewal, contact your insurance provider to understand your current coverage and discuss potential premium changes if crime rates continue to rise.

Real Estate Owners:

Tenant Communication: Engage with your tenants to understand their security concerns. Proactive communication can help identify needs before they become critical issues.
Property Walkthroughs: Conduct thorough property walkthroughs, paying attention to common areas, parking lots, and entryways. Identify any potential security vulnerabilities.
Consult Security Experts: If your property is in an area showing potentially increasing crime, consider obtaining quotes for enhanced security measures or security system upgrades. Factor potential costs into your next budget cycle.

Action Details: 'Watch local crime statistics and police advisories for your operating area. If data from at least two independent sources (e.g., HPD reports, reputable local news agencies) indicates a sustained increase of 10% or more in property crimes or violent incidents in your neighborhood over a 90-day period, then initiate a professional security assessment for your business or property and consult with your insurance provider regarding potential premium adjustments and coverage options.'