Kilauea Seismic Monitoring: Eruption Pattern Shifts Require Vigilance
Recent analysis of small earthquakes beneath Kilauea's summit, when viewed through the lens of historical eruption precedents like Kilauea Iki (1959) and Maunaulu (1969), suggests that the ongoing episodic eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu could evolve in unpredictable ways. While the U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) consistently monitors seismic and volcanic activity to provide real-time updates, understanding the patterns of past episodic eruptions offers crucial foresight for businesses operating in proximity to or reliant on volcanic activity. This insight is particularly relevant for tourism operators and real estate owners as it may inform risk management and operational continuity planning.
Who's Affected
- Tourism Operators (Hotels, Tour Companies, Vacation Rentals): Increased awareness of potential eruption escalations allows for proactive adjustments to booking policies, visitor advisories, and staff preparedness. Sudden disruptions from lava flows or ashfall could impact accessibility and visitor experience, leading to cancellations and revenue loss. Monitoring HVO advisories becomes critical for managing customer expectations and ensuring safety.
- Real Estate Owners (Property Owners, Developers, Landlords): Properties in designated volcanic hazard zones face potential impacts ranging from access restrictions to, in extreme scenarios, direct damage. Understanding eruption patterns can inform long-term investment decisions, insurance policy reviews, and property management strategies. Property appraisals in or near active volcanic areas may need recalibration based on evolving risk assessments.
- Investors (VCs, Angel Investors, Portfolio Managers): For investments tied to Hawaii's tourism infrastructure or real estate development, understanding volcanic risk is paramount. While Kilauea's current activity may not represent an immediate crisis, a shift towards more volatile eruption phases could impact the viability of businesses reliant on consistent visitor traffic or stable land use.
- Small Business Operators (Restaurants, Retail, Services): Businesses in areas potentially affected by visitor flow changes or access disruptions related to volcanic activity need to stay informed. While direct impacts might be less frequent than for tourism-specific businesses, prolonged disruptions to visitor numbers or supply chain routes (if any become affected by volcanic events) can trickle down to local commerce.
Second-Order Effects
- Elevated Volcanic Activity → Tourism Disruption → Reduced Local Spending: Heightened volcanic alert levels or an escalation in lava activity can lead to visitor advisories or closures, causing a significant drop in tourist arrivals. This directly reduces spending at hotels, restaurants, retail stores, and tour operations, impacting the revenue streams of small businesses and the overall economic health of the tourism sector. This, in turn, can lead to decreased demand for commercial real estate leases in tourist-heavy areas.
- Volcanic Hazard Perception → Property Insurance Premiums → Real Estate Investment: Increased perceived risk due to volcanic activity can lead to higher property insurance premiums for real estate owners in affected zones. This added cost can make properties less attractive to potential buyers and developers, potentially dampening real estate investment and development, and increasing the cost of doing business for existing property owners.
What to Do
Action Level: WATCH
Given the medium urgency and the nature of seismic monitoring, immediate action is not mandated. However, continuous monitoring and preparedness are essential. The focus is on maintaining situational awareness and having contingency plans ready should seismic indicators evolve.
- For Tourism Operators: Regularly monitor advisories from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) and the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency. Review and update your business continuity plans for potential visitor disruptions, focusing on communication protocols with guests and flexible reservation policies.
- For Real Estate Owners & Investors: Stay informed on any changes in volcanic hazard zone designations or advisories from HVO and local authorities. Periodically review property insurance policies for adequate coverage against volcanic risks and assess the long-term viability of investments in high-risk areas.
- For Small Business Operators: While generally less directly impacted, maintain awareness of overall tourism trends and local advisories. Ensure your supply chain is resilient and be prepared for potential fluctuations in customer traffic that could arise from wider tourism impacts.
Action Details: Monitor the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) for any changes in Kilauea's alert level or activity status. If HVO reports a significant increase in seismic unrest, distinct eruption pattern changes (e.g., shift from fountaining to effusive, or vice-versa; increased gas emissions impacting air quality), or new lava flow pathways, review your risk mitigation strategies, including visitor advisories, insurance coverage, and operational flexibility. For businesses with direct exposure, consider stress-testing contingency plans once a week.
