Maui Coastal Operations Face Immediate Disruption from High Surf Advisory

Executive Brief

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Maui's north and west-facing shores through Monday morning, Jan 13, 2026, necessitating immediate operational adjustments for tourism operators and potential property risks for real estate owners. Immediate safety checks and temporary service modifications are advised.

• Tourism Operators: Expect immediate cancellations of water activities, potential beach closures impacting guest experience, and increased demand for land-based excursions.
• Real Estate Owners: Coastal properties face heightened risk of wave damage; assess and secure assets. Temporary access restrictions may be needed.
• Action: Tourism operators should confirm safety protocols and communicate any service changes to guests by noon today. Real estate owners should conduct immediate property inspections.

The Change

A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for Maui's north and west-facing shores, effective through Monday morning, January 13, 2026. This advisory is due to a large northwest swell generating surf conditions that could reach 10-15 feet, with occasional sets higher, especially in exposed areas.

This advisory indicates that dangerously large wave action, strong currents, and hazardous nearshore Riptides are expected. The National Weather Service has cautioned that these conditions pose a significant risk to life and property along the coast. While the immediate advisory lifts Monday morning, residual large surf can persist, requiring ongoing vigilance.

Who's Affected

Tourism Operators

Hospitality Businesses (Hotels, Resorts, Vacation Rentals):

• Visitor Experience Degradation: Beach access may be restricted, and water activities like snorkeling tours, boat excursions, paddleboarding, and beginner surf lessons will likely be cancelled or postponed. This directly impacts the guest experience and satisfaction, potentially leading to negative reviews or refund requests.
• Operational Disruptions: Tour operators involved in ocean-based activities must immediately suspend operations. This results in lost revenue for the current period and necessitates rescheduling or cancellation processing.
• Increased Demand for Alternatives: While ocean activities are curtailed, there may be a temporary surge in demand for land-based excursions (e.g., scenic drives, cultural tours, luaus) or indoor activities. Businesses offering these alternatives may see a short-term booking increase.
• Safety Protocol Reinforcement: Staff must be retrained and reminded of immediate safety protocols for guests near coastal areas, emphasizing adherence to posted warnings and closures.

Restaurants and Retail with Coastal Proximity:

• Reduced Foot Traffic: Areas immediately adjacent to affected beaches may see decreased foot traffic, impacting walk-in business.
• Property Securing: Outdoor seating areas or vulnerable ground-floor inventory may need to be secured or moved indoors to prevent damage from wind-driven spray or unexpectedly high waves.

Real Estate Owners

Coastal Property Owners (Residential and Commercial):

• Direct Property Damage Risk: Properties located on or very near north and west-facing shorelines are at increased risk of damage from large waves, saltwater intrusion into structures, and erosion. Any exposed ground-level infrastructure, landscaping, or recreational areas (e.g., pools, patios) are particularly vulnerable.
• Access Restrictions: In some areas, authorities may issue temporary access restrictions to coastal roads or beaches for public safety, impacting property access for owners, tenants, or service providers.
• Insurance Implications: While a single advisory may not trigger insurance claims directly, a pattern of severe weather events exacerbated by advisories can influence future insurance premiums or insurability for high-risk coastal properties.

Property Managers and Landlords:

• Tenant Communication: Property managers must proactively communicate potential risks and safety guidelines to tenants residing in or visiting coastal properties.
• Maintenance and Securing: Immediate steps may be required to secure outdoor furniture, trim vegetation, and inspect drainage systems to mitigate potential damage.

Second-Order Effects

The immediate impact of dangerous surf conditions leads to a cascade of consequences within Hawaii's island economy. A sustained series of such advisories, or an unexpected significant event, can:

• Disrupt Tourism Revenue Flights: Significant cancellations of ocean activities directly reduce tourist spending on tours and related services. This can lead to a temporary dip in overall visitor expenditure, impacting businesses beyond direct tourism operators.
• Strain Local Infrastructure: While not directly caused by surf, the need to reroute or manage access due to coastal flooding or closures can indirectly strain local road networks and emergency services, especially if combined with other weather events.
• Increase Maintenance Costs for Coastal Properties: Repeated exposure to high surf, even without catastrophic damage, accelerates wear and tear on coastal structures, leading to higher ongoing maintenance and repair costs for property owners.
• Impact Local Supply Chains (minor): While not a primary concern for this specific event, severe and prolonged coastal conditions can disrupt inter-island barge services or port operations, indirectly affecting the availability and cost of goods within the state.

What to Do

For Tourism Operators:

• Immediate (By Noon, Jan 13):

  1. Review and Communicate Cancellations: Immediately assess all scheduled ocean-based tours and activities for Monday, Jan 13. Cancel any directly impacted services.
  2. Inform Guests: Proactively notify all affected guests about cancellations, providing clear reasons and offering rebooking options or alternative land-based activities. Utilize email, SMS, and hotel concierges for broad communication.
  3. Reinforce Safety Briefings: Ensure all staff interacting with guests, especially those in beachfront locations, reinforce current safety advisories and beach conditions. Update lobby signage.
  4. Prepare Alternative Offerings: If possible, promote or adjust schedules for land-based tours or indoor activities to capture demand from guests whose plans were altered.

• Ongoing (Through Jan 14-15):

  1. Monitor Conditions: Continue to monitor surf forecasts and local advisories beyond Monday morning, as conditions may take time to fully subside.
  2. Adjust Schedules: Be prepared to adjust schedules for Tuesday and Wednesday based on the lingering effects or further forecast changes.

For Real Estate Owners:

• **Immediate (By Noon, Jan 13):

  1. Conduct Visual Inspection: If safe to do so, conduct a visual inspection of the property's exterior, focusing on the shoreline, foundation, windows, and any ground-level structures or landscaping exposed to the ocean.
  2. Secure Outdoor Items: Ensure all outdoor furniture, equipment, decorations, or any loose items on decks, balconies, or patios are secured or moved indoors.
  3. Check Drainage: Verify that storm drains and gutters are clear to prevent water backup, especially if combined with rainfall.
  4. Inform Tenants: If the property is rented, communicate the advisory to tenants, advising them of potential hazards, restricting access to compromised areas, and outlining emergency contact procedures.

• Ongoing (Through Jan 14-15):

  1. Monitor for Damage: After the peak of the swell passes, conduct a more thorough inspection for any signs of damage, erosion, or structural compromise.
  2. Document Issues: Photograph and document any damage for insurance or repair purposes.
  3. Address Urgent Repairs: Prioritize and address any urgent repairs needed to secure the property and prevent further damage.

Action Details

Tourism operators must confirm immediate cancellations and communicate modified plans to guests by noon today, Jan 13, 2026, to manage expectations and prevent safety incidents. Real estate owners should conduct immediate property inspections and secure all outdoor items by the same deadline to mitigate potential damage from the high surf advisory.