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Tourism & Hospitality

Maui Tourism Operators Face Increased Risk of Activity Cancellations and Safety Incidents Due to High Surf

·4 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

Elevated surf conditions forecasted for Maui's east-facing shores from Sunday night onward necessitate proactive risk management for tourism and coastal businesses. Operators should prepare for potential disruptions and heightened safety protocols. Tourists may face cancellations or advisories.

👀

Watch & Prepare

Medium Priority

Rough conditions with high surf can lead to cancellations, safety concerns, and potential damage to coastal properties or infrastructure if not managed proactively.

Monitor surf height and rip current advisories daily from the [National Weather Service](https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine) and [Maui Now](https://mauinow.com/). If surf forecasts indicate conditions persisting for more than 72 hours beyond the initial Sunday night forecast or if official warnings are escalated to a High Surf Warning, businesses should activate their contingency plans, including offering refunds or rescheduling options for affected bookings and potentially limiting beach access or outdoor operations.

Who's Affected
Tourism OperatorsSmall Business OperatorsReal Estate Owners
Ripple Effects
  • →Elevated surf conditions → Increased safety advisories and potential cancellations of ocean tours → Reduced visitor spending on water activities → Downward pressure on tour operator revenue → Potential for reduced staffing needs in maritime sectors.
Powerful waves crash against rugged cliffs, creating a scenic and dramatic seascape.
Photo by Cyrill

Maui High Surf Advisory: Implications for Coastal Businesses and Tourism Operators

The Change

A significant increase in surf height and rough conditions are forecast for Maui's east-facing shores beginning Sunday night, February 15, 2026. This is driven by strengthening trade winds, which are expected to persist through the following days. Such conditions typically lead to hazardous water activities, limited beach access, and potential impacts on coastal infrastructure. While this is a recurring seasonal event, the specific forecast indicates a notable escalation in surf intensity, demanding immediate attention for businesses reliant on predictable ocean conditions.

Who's Affected

  • Tourism Operators (Hotels, Tour Companies, Vacation Rentals): Expect a surge in cancellations for ocean-based activities (snorkeling, boat tours, surfing lessons) and potential disruptions to beach access at oceanfront properties. Increased demand for land-based activities may occur, but safety advisories will likely lead to reduced participation in water sports. Hotel occupancy may see short-term dips if visitors postpone or cancel trips due to safety concerns.
  • Small Business Operators (Coastal Retail, Restaurants, Service Providers): Businesses located near affected beaches may experience decreased foot traffic as visitor flow shifts away from the coast. Restaurants and shops in these areas should anticipate potential delays in deliveries if port conditions worsen or road access becomes restricted due to weather-related issues. Emergency preparedness for minor property damage from wave action should be considered.
  • Real Estate Owners (Oceanfront Properties, Coastal Leases): Owners of properties directly fronting the sea should review their insurance policies and be alert for potential minor erosion or damage from higher wave action. While unlikely to cause significant structural issues in the short term, preparedness for maintenance and potential temporary closures of beachfront amenities is advisable.

Second-Order Effects

Elevated surf conditions → Increased safety advisories and potential cancellations of ocean tours → Reduced visitor spending on water activities → Downward pressure on tour operator revenue → Potential for reduced staffing needs in maritime sectors.

What to Do

Action Level: WATCH

Given the forecasted surf conditions and their potential to disrupt operations and visitor experiences, businesses should actively monitor the situation and implement contingency plans. The following actions are recommended:

  • Tourism Operators: Review cancellation policies and communicate proactively with guests booked for ocean activities or staying at oceanfront properties. Prepare alternative land-based tour options or entertainment. Enhance beach safety signage and briefings for guests. Monitor official advisories from Maui Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service.
  • Small Business Operators: Assess vulnerability of coastal-facing storefronts or outdoor seating. Secure any loose items that could be affected by wind or spray. Monitor local news and official advisories for any beach closures or access restrictions that might impact customer access. Communicate any potential operational changes to staff.
  • Real Estate Owners: Conduct a visual inspection of oceanfront properties for immediate risks. Ensure drainage systems are clear. Be prepared for potential minor landscaping or structural maintenance if wave action causes damage.

Action Details

Monitor surf height and rip current advisories daily from the National Weather Service and Maui Now. If surf forecasts indicate conditions persisting for more than 72 hours beyond the initial Sunday night forecast or if official warnings are escalated to a High Surf Warning, businesses should activate their contingency plans, including offering refunds or rescheduling options for affected bookings and potentially limiting beach access or outdoor operations.

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