Maui Tourism Operators Face Operational Shift with Expected January 2026 Northwest Swell
A moderate, long-period northwest swell is projected to arrive in the Hawaiian Islands, particularly impacting Maui, from January 20, 2026, and continuing into the middle of that week. This significant shift in ocean conditions will directly influence coastal activities and, consequently, the operational planning for tourism-dependent businesses and related small businesses.
The Change
Beginning Tuesday, January 20, 2026, Maui is expected to experience a swell originating from the northwest. Forecasts indicate this will be a "moderate, long period" swell, meaning it will carry significant energy and potentially generate larger, more powerful waves than typical for this time of year. The swell is anticipated to persist for several days, influencing surf conditions across the island's north and west-facing shores. This is a predictable weather event, but its magnitude and duration will require proactive adjustments from businesses reliant on stable coastal access and visitor activities.
Who's Affected
Tourism Operators:
- Surf Schools & Tour Operators: This swell presents an opportunity to offer more advanced surfing lessons and experiences. However, it also necessitates careful risk assessment and potentially more experienced guides. Scheduling shifts may be required to optimize lesson times during peak conditions.
- Hotels & Vacation Rentals: Properties located on north and west shores may see increased guest interest in wave-watching or surfing activities. This could lead to higher demand for equipment rentals and local activity bookings. Conversely, some guests may prefer calmer, south-shore beaches, requiring operators to manage expectations and provide alternative recommendations.
- Hospitality Businesses: Restaurants and bars with ocean views in affected areas might see shifts in foot traffic, with potential increases during prime viewing times or declines if access is restricted due to rough conditions.
Small Business Operators:
- Beachfront Retail: Shops selling surf gear and beach apparel may experience a surge in demand, particularly for accessories suited to larger waves. Inventory management should be prioritized.
- Restaurant & Bar Owners: Businesses near popular surf breaks should prepare for increased patronage if conditions are conducive to spectator crowds. Conversely, businesses on beaches experiencing dangerous conditions might see a reduction in patrons.
- Transportation Services: Companies providing shuttles or tours to beach-accessed locations should monitor wave reports to advise clients and adjust routes if necessary, especially if road access near popular surf spots becomes congested.
Second-Order Effects
Increased visitor engagement with challenging surf conditions → higher demand for surf-related gear and lessons → potential strain on local surf shop inventory and qualified instructors → marginal increase in revenue for surf-focused businesses, but also potential for increased liability and insurance considerations for operators. Furthermore, higher demand for ocean activities could indirectly increase demand for ancillary services like food and beverage, putting minor pressure on local restaurant staffing and supply chains in tourist-heavy coastal areas.
What to Do
This is a WATCH scenario. No immediate action is required, but proactive monitoring and communication are key for optimizing opportunities and mitigating potential disruptions.
Tourism Operators:
- Action: Review scheduled tours and lessons. Ensure adequate staffing with experienced personnel for potential advanced surfing conditions. Communicate potential changes in ocean conditions to guests in advance, offering alternative activities if north/west shore access becomes challenging or unsafe.
- Monitor: Visitor feedback regarding surf conditions and satisfaction with offered activities. Track any safety incidents reported by local authorities or lifeguards related to the swell.
Small Business Operators:
- Action: Assess current inventory of surf and beach-related merchandise. If operating near popular surf spots, consider staffing adjustments and special promotions to capitalize on potential spectator crowds. Ensure clear communication channels with customers about potential access changes or weather impacts.
- Monitor: Local surf reports for changes in conditions and safety advisories. Observe patterns in customer traffic and preferences throughout the week the swell is active.
