Maui Tourism Operators Face Reduced Coastal Access and Potential Booking Disruptions Due to High Surf Advisory

Issue: High surf conditions are projected for Maui's north and west-facing shores from January 11-12, 2026, necessitating immediate adjustments for tourism operators reliant on coastal activities and visitor satisfaction.

Summary: A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for Maui's north and west-facing shores through Sunday, January 12, 2026, potentially impacting visitor activities and requiring immediate operational adjustments. Tourism operators should prepare for altered visitor experiences and potential cancellations.

• Tourism Operators: Expect cancellations or rescheduling of boat tours, snorkeling trips, and beach-front activities; potential for guest dissatisfaction if managed poorly.
• Timeline: Advisory in effect through January 12, 2026. Monitor changing conditions and forecasts daily.
• Action: Proactively communicate with guests, adjust activity schedules, and offer alternative experiences.

The Change

A significant long-period northwest swell is expected to bring advisory-level surf heights to Maui's north and west-facing shores, triggering a High Surf Advisory (HSA). This advisory is in effect from Sunday, January 11, 2026, and is projected to continue through Monday, January 12, 2026. Wave heights are anticipated to range from 15 to 25 feet, with potential for larger sets during peak periods. These conditions are dangerous for swimming, surfing, and other water activities and can lead to significant coastal erosion and hazardous nearshore environments. The advisory is issued by the National Weather Service, indicating conditions that could cause surf-related hazards if caution is not exercised.

Who's Affected

Tourism Operators (Hotels, Tour Companies, Vacation Rentals, Hospitality Businesses):

• Water-Based Tours: Companies offering snorkeling, diving, boat tours, or sunset cruises along the north and west coasts will likely need to cancel or postpone operations due to dangerous sea conditions and potential equipment damage. This directly impacts revenue streams for January 11-12.
• Beachfront Accommodations: Hotels and vacation rentals located on or near affected beaches may experience guest concerns regarding beach access, increased noise from wave action, and potential property damage from storm surge if conditions worsen.
• Activity Planners: Operations that book visitor activities need to anticipate a surge in activity rescheduling requests and potential cancellations, requiring flexible booking policies and prompt communication.
• Visitor Experience: Guests may have altered expectations for their vacation if planned beach and water activities are unavailable, potentially leading to lower satisfaction scores and negative reviews if not managed proactively.

Second-Order Effects

High surf advisories, while often short-lived, can disrupt the delicate balance of Hawaii's tourism-dependent economy. For Maui, this translates to:

• Reduced Coastal Activity Revenue: Direct loss of income for tour operators and surf schools on the affected days. This can have an immediate impact on cash flow for small businesses.
• Shift in Visitor Demand to Inland/South/East Experiences: Potential for increased demand on activities not affected by the swell, such as winery tours, farm visits, or luaus on south or east Maui shores, which may already be operating at capacity.
• Increased Operational Costs: Businesses might incur costs for securing equipment, cleaning up debris, or offering complimentary services to offset cancelled activities.
• Impact on Local Economy: Reduced spending by tourists on food and services in coastal areas during the advisory period.

What to Do

Tourism Operators:

• Immediate Communication (By January 11, 2026, AM): Proactively reach out to all guests with reservations for January 11-12, 2026, for affected tours or activities. Inform them of the High Surf Advisory and the potential need for cancellation or rescheduling. Provide clear options and policies.
• Reschedule or Offer Alternatives (Immediately): For cancelled tours, offer immediate rescheduling options for later in their stay or provide gift certificates for future use. If feasible, pivot to alternative, safe activities that are not dependent on the north/west coast, such as cultural tours, scenic drives on unaffected coasts, or inland attractions. Consult GoHawaii for island-wide advisories.
• Review Insurance and Contingency Plans (By January 11, 2026): Check insurance policies for coverage related to weather-related cancellations or property damage. Review existing contingency plans for severe weather events.
• Monitor Conditions Closely (Daily through January 12): Continuously monitor updates from the National Weather Service and local Maui news sources for any changes to the advisory, especially regarding its duration or intensity.
• Prepare for Post-Advisory Resurgence (By January 13, 2026): Anticipate a potential surge in bookings or activity requests as conditions improve. Ensure staffing and resources are ready to accommodate the return to normal operations.