S&P 500—Dow—NASDAQ—Russell 2000—FTSE 100—DAX—CAC 40—Nikkei—Hang Seng—ASX 200—ALEX—ALK—BOH—CPF—CYAN—FHB—HE—MATX—MLP—NVDA—AAPL—GOOGL—GOOG—MSFT—AMZN—META—AVGO—TSLA—BRK.B—WMT—LLY—JPM—V—XOM—JNJ—MA—MU—COST—BAC—ORCL—ABBV—HD—PG—CVX—NFLX—KO—AMD—GE—CAT—PEP—MRK—ADBE—DIS—UNH—CSCO—INTC—CRM—PM—MCD—ACN—TMO—NEE—BMY—DHR—HON—RTX—UPS—TXN—LIN—QCOM—AMGN—SPGI—INTU—COP—LOW—AMAT—BKNG—AXP—DE—LMT—MDT—CB—ADP—GILD—MDLZ—SYK—BLK—C—ADI—REGN—SBUX—NOW—CI—VRTX—ZTS—MMC—PLD—SO—DUK—CMCSA—APD—BSX—BDX—EOG—ICE—ISRG—SLB—LRCX—PGR—USB—SCHW—ELV—ITW—KLAC—WM—EQIX—ETN—TGT—MO—HCA—APTV—BTC—ETH—XRP—USDT—SOL—BNB—USDC—DOGE—ADA—STETH—S&P 500—Dow—NASDAQ—Russell 2000—FTSE 100—DAX—CAC 40—Nikkei—Hang Seng—ASX 200—ALEX—ALK—BOH—CPF—CYAN—FHB—HE—MATX—MLP—NVDA—AAPL—GOOGL—GOOG—MSFT—AMZN—META—AVGO—TSLA—BRK.B—WMT—LLY—JPM—V—XOM—JNJ—MA—MU—COST—BAC—ORCL—ABBV—HD—PG—CVX—NFLX—KO—AMD—GE—CAT—PEP—MRK—ADBE—DIS—UNH—CSCO—INTC—CRM—PM—MCD—ACN—TMO—NEE—BMY—DHR—HON—RTX—UPS—TXN—LIN—QCOM—AMGN—SPGI—INTU—COP—LOW—AMAT—BKNG—AXP—DE—LMT—MDT—CB—ADP—GILD—MDLZ—SYK—BLK—C—ADI—REGN—SBUX—NOW—CI—VRTX—ZTS—MMC—PLD—SO—DUK—CMCSA—APD—BSX—BDX—EOG—ICE—ISRG—SLB—LRCX—PGR—USB—SCHW—ELV—ITW—KLAC—WM—EQIX—ETN—TGT—MO—HCA—APTV—BTC—ETH—XRP—USDT—SOL—BNB—USDC—DOGE—ADA—STETH—

Maui Tourism Recovery Accelerates, Signaling Increased Demand and Potential Staffing Pressures

·5 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

Maui saw a significant double-digit rebound in visitor arrivals and spending in January 2026, indicating a stronger tourism recovery. Small business operators and tourism providers should prepare for increased demand and monitor labor availability closely.

  • Tourism Operators: Expect higher occupancy and spend, potentially requiring expanded service capacity.
  • Small Business Operators: Increased visitor foot traffic may boost revenue but could strain staffing.
  • Real Estate Owners: Potential for increased demand in short-term rentals and commercial spaces.
  • Investors: Favorable conditions for tourism-related investments on Maui.
  • Action: Watch visitor arrival trends and track local labor market indicators.

Watch & Prepare

While the data is from January, continuing trends require businesses to adapt to increased demand and potentially adjust staffing or inventory levels to capitalize on the recovery.

Businesses should monitor visitor arrival trends and local labor market indicators. If sustained double-digit growth continues for another two months and forward bookings remain strong, reassess staffing and inventory levels. For real estate owners, consider adjusting rental strategies if occupancy and rates show consistent increases. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth before making significant portfolio adjustments.

Who's Affected
Tourism OperatorsSmall Business OperatorsReal Estate OwnersInvestors
Ripple Effects
  • →Increased visitor spending → heightened demand for local goods and services → potential price increases for local consumers
  • →Scaling tourism operations → increased pressure on limited labor pool → potential wage inflation for hospitality workers
  • →Rising visitor demand → increased competition for short-term rentals → potential reduction in housing availability for residents
Stunning aerial view of a tropical beach with turquoise waters and golden sand in Maui, Hawaii.
Photo by Michal Vaško

Maui Tourism Recovery Accelerates, Signaling Increased Demand and Potential Staffing Pressures

Maui's tourism sector continues its robust recovery from the August 2023 wildfires, with January 2026 data revealing double-digit increases in both visitor arrivals and spending. This trend suggests a rebound in visitor confidence and economic activity across the island, presenting both opportunities and challenges for local businesses.

The Change

According to the State Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism's latest Hotel Performance Report, Maui experienced substantial growth in key tourism metrics for January 2026. While specific figures were not provided in the initial report summary, the "double-digit increases" indicate a significant positive shift compared to previous periods. This surge marks a critical phase in the island's tourism recovery, moving beyond initial stabilization towards renewed growth. The data, released on February 26, 2026, reflects visitor activity during January 2026.

Who's Affected

Tourism Operators

HOTELS, TOUR COMPANIES, VACATION RENTALS, AND HOSPITALITY BUSINESSes on Maui can anticipate a direct benefit from increased visitor volume. Higher demand translates to potentially fuller bookings, increased revenue per available room (RevPAR), and greater utilization of services. However, this surge also necessitates careful resource management, including staffing levels, inventory, and service capacity, to meet heightened customer expectations.

Small Business Operators

RESTAURANT OWNERS, RETAIL SHOPS, AND LOCAL SERVICE BUSINESSES across Maui that cater to tourists should prepare for a measurable uptick in customer traffic and spending. This presents an opportunity to increase sales and revenue. However, operators must also consider the potential strain on their workforce. A sustained increase in visitors could exacerbate existing labor shortages, impacting service quality and operational efficiency if not adequately addressed.

Real Estate Owners

PROPERTY OWNERS, DEVELOPERS, AND LANDLORDS, particularly those with properties in tourist-heavy areas, may see increased demand for both short-term rentals and commercial leases. As tourism rebounds, the desirability of locations with good access to visitor amenities could rise, potentially leading to increased rental income and property values. Developers might find renewed interest in projects aligned with tourist needs.

Investors

INVESTORS looking at Hawaii's market should note Maui's accelerating tourism recovery as a positive indicator for the hospitality sector. This trend suggests resilience and growth potential in tourism-dependent businesses and real estate. Opportunities may arise in companies providing goods and services to visitors, as well as in property management and hospitality infrastructure.

Second-Order Effects

This accelerated tourism recovery on Maui is likely to create a ripple effect across the island's constrained economy. Increased visitor spending directly boosts demand for goods and services, potentially leading to higher prices for local consumers due to increased competition for resources. As tourism operators scale up to meet this demand, they will face increased pressure on the already tight labor market. This could drive up wages for hospitality workers, impacting operating costs for businesses. Simultaneously, increased demand for short-term rentals could further constrain housing availability for local residents, potentially increasing rental costs and contributing to affordability challenges.

What to Do

Given the observable trend and the LOW urgency, the recommendation is to WATCH the evolving situation. Businesses should monitor visitor trend data and local economic indicators, preparing for potential shifts without immediate overhauls.

For Tourism Operators:

  • Monitor: Continue tracking visitor arrival numbers and booking trends released by DBEDT and industry associations. Pay close attention to forward-looking booking data for the next 3-6 months.
  • Trigger for Action: If sustained double-digit growth continues for another two consecutive months, and forward bookings indicate high occupancy for the next quarter, begin assessing staffing needs for potential expansion and ensure inventory levels are adequate.

For Small Business Operators:

  • Monitor: Track foot traffic and sales data closely. Initiate preliminary conversations with existing staff about potential increased hours or the need for additional hires.
  • Trigger for Action: If your business experiences a consistent 10% or greater increase in customer volume over the next 60 days, begin actively recruiting for seasonal or permanent staff and review inventory management to ensure sufficient stock.

For Real Estate Owners:

  • Monitor: Observe rental demand in tourist-centric areas and track average nightly rates for vacation rentals.
  • Trigger for Action: If average occupancy rates for your properties exceed 80% for two consecutive months, and comparable rental rates increase by 5% or more, consider adjusting your rental pricing strategy and evaluating property management capacity.

For Investors:

  • Monitor: Keep an eye on quarterly earnings reports from publicly traded hospitality companies operating on Maui and track local real estate investment trends.
  • Trigger for Action: If Maui's tourism revenue continues its upward trajectory for the next two quarters, consider increasing portfolio allocation to tourism-related sectors or exploring opportunities in distressed hospitality assets that may be undervalued.

More from us

Related Articles

A stunning humpback whale breaches the ocean surface near Maui, Hawaii, showcasing its power.
Tourism & Hospitality

Maui Tourism Shows Robust Recovery: Arrivals and Spending Surge in November 2025

·2 min read