New Board Member Could Shift Land Use Decisions, Impacting Agriculture and Real Estate

EXECUTIVE BRIEF

James (Jay) John Kamealoha Carpio has been appointed to the state Board of Land and Natural Resources (BLNR) through June 30, 2029, bringing extensive experience as a rancher, fisherman, and farmer, alongside conservation leadership. This shift could influence future decisions on land use, resource management, and environmental regulations, potentially affecting businesses across multiple sectors. Impacts are expected to unfold gradually, necessitating a watch-and-monitor approach.

• Agriculture & Food Producers: Potential for policy shifts favoring traditional land uses or conservation; monitor decisions on water rights, land leases, and agricultural zoning.
• Real Estate Owners: Changes in permitting processes or environmental reviews could affect development timelines and project viability.
• Tourism Operators: While indirect, shifts in coastal zone management or protected area policies could influence access and tourism product development.
• Action: Monitor BLNR meeting minutes and proposed rule changes. High-impact decisions on specific projects or statewide regulations may require expedited permit applications or strategic adjustments.

THE CHANGE

Gov. Josh Green has appointed James (Jay) John Kamealoha Carpio to the state Board of Land and Natural Resources (BLNR) for a term ending June 30, 2029. Carpio's background is notably hands-on, encompassing extensive experience as a rancher, fisherman, and farmer. He also co-founded marine conservation organizations Maui Nui Makai Network and The Limu Hui, and was involved in the Wailuku Coastal Managed Makai Area initiative. This appointment signifies a potential shift in the board's decision-making, bringing a perspective deeply rooted in the practical application of land and marine resource management.

WHO'S AFFECTED

This appointment's primary impact will be felt by industries directly engaging with Hawaii's land and natural resources. Over the next five years, decisions made by the BLNR, with Carpio's input, could influence sectors including:

• Agriculture & Food Producers: Farmers, ranchers, and aquaculture operators should pay close attention to BLNR's stance on water allocation, land use designations for agriculture, and permitting for agricultural infrastructure. Carpio's background suggests a potential understanding of the practical challenges faced by these industries, but also a strong inclination towards conservation, which could lead to more stringent regulations on water usage or land conversion. Decisions on ceded lands leases and agricultural park expansions will be key indicators.
• Real Estate Owners & Developers: The BLNR plays a crucial role in approving permits for development, particularly in conservation districts and along shorelines. Carpio's emphasis on conservation and managed areas could signal a more rigorous review process for new projects, potentially increasing the time and cost associated with obtaining necessary permits. Changes in environmental impact assessments or coastal zone management policies could affect property values and development feasibility, especially for projects near sensitive ecosystems.
• Tourism Operators: While less direct, BLNR decisions have a downstream effect on tourism. Policies impacting coastal access, the preservation of natural landscapes (like beaches and hiking trails), and marine protected areas can influence the types of experiences available to visitors. For instance, stricter regulations on development near shorelines or increased protections for marine life could alter the appeal and accessibility of certain tourist destinations. Operators relying on eco-tourism or nature-based activities will be most attuned to these shifts.

SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS

Hawaii's island economy is highly interconnected. A shift in land use and resource policy by the BLNR can create ripple effects:

• Stricter conservation policies → Reduced development opportunity → Slower job growth in construction → Increased competition for available labor: If new conservation mandates or lengthy permitting processes slow down development, it can directly impact the construction sector. Fewer projects mean fewer jobs, potentially leading to a surplus of skilled labor or reduced wage growth in that specific sector, while increasing competition for jobs in other industries.
• Changes in water allocation for agriculture → Lower crop yields → Increased reliance on imported food → Higher consumer prices: If water resources are prioritized for conservation or other uses over agriculture, it could constrain agricultural output. This reduced local supply would necessitate greater imports, exposing consumers to price volatility driven by global markets and impacting the cost of living.
• Enhanced coastal protection → Limited beachfront development → Potential for increased value in existing coastal properties or shift to inland development: As development near shorelines becomes more constrained due to environmental concerns, existing beachfront properties may see increased value due to their unique status, or developers may shift focus to inland locations, potentially altering land values across different regions.

WHAT TO DO

Given the informational nature of this appointment and the gradual unfolding of its impact, the current action level is WATCH. The focus should be on monitoring BLNR proceedings and public policy discussions.

• Agriculture & Food Producers: Closely follow BLNR meeting agendas and minutes, particularly for discussions on water rights, land leases in agricultural zones, and the establishment or modification of conservation districts. Be prepared to engage during public comment periods on significant proposed rules or permit applications that could affect your operations. Specific actions may be triggered if new water use restrictions or land use reclassifications are proposed.
• Real Estate Owners & Developers: Monitor BLNR decisions on major development projects and any changes to environmental review processes or permitting timelines, especially for projects within conservation districts or near coastal areas. If permitting processes begin to show significant delays (e.g., a 15-20% increase in average processing times beyond historical norms) or if new environmental compliance requirements are introduced systematically, consider adjusting project timelines or budgets accordingly.
• Tourism Operators: While BLNR's direct impact on tourism is typically indirect, stay informed about decisions affecting the conservation of natural attractions and coastal access. If policies lead to closures or significant restrictions on access to key natural sites that are central to your offerings, you may need to adapt marketing strategies or develop alternative experiences.

Action Details: Continue to monitor BLNR meeting minutes and proposed rule changes for emerging trends in land and resource management. If specific BLNR decisions or proposed regulations demonstrably lengthen permitting times by over 20% for your type of project, or if access to critical natural tourist sites is significantly curtailed, then evaluate the need to adjust permit application strategies or revise business offerings accordingly.