North/West Coast Businesses Face Immediate Disruption from 45-Foot Surf
Executive Brief
A High Surf Warning is in effect for north and west-facing shores of Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Molokaʻi; north-facing shores of Maui; and west-facing shores of the Big Island, with wave heights projected to reach 45 feet starting February 4th, 2026. This extreme surf poses immediate risks of physical damage, significant operational disruption, and potential supply chain slowdowns for businesses located in or reliant on these coastal areas. Immediate steps must be taken to secure property and operations.
- Small Business Operators: Risk of property damage, immediate closure of coastal-facing storefronts, and potential staffing challenges due to access restrictions.
- Real Estate Owners: Exposure to coastal erosion and storm surge damage, requiring immediate property securing measures and potential insurance claims.
- Tourism Operators: Imminent cancellations of ocean tours, beach closures impacting hotel guest satisfaction, and immediate need to reroute or postpone activities.
- Agriculture & Food Producers: Potential delays for any small-scale coastal export loading operations and risks to coastal infrastructure.
- Timeline: Warning in effect immediately, expected duration of highest surf activity for 24-72 hours.
- Action: Secure all outdoor assets, review emergency preparedness plans, and communicate with staff and customers about potential closures or service disruptions by end of day, February 4th.
The Change
A High Surf Warning issued by the National Weather Service indicates that dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop rapidly. For the north and west-facing shores of Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Molokaʻi, as well as the north-facing shores of Maui and west-facing shores of the Big Island, wave heights are forecast to reach up to 45 feet. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect for the north-facing shores of the Big Island for lesser, but still hazardous, wave heights.
These conditions are typically driven by large winter storm systems in the North Pacific, generating powerful swells that travel thousands of miles to reach Hawaii's shores. The warning signifies that these waves will be capable of causing significant damage to coastal properties, posing a severe threat to life safety for those near the surf zone, and disrupting marine activities and coastal access.
Who's Affected
Small Business Operators (small-operator)
Businesses operating in vulnerable coastal locations, particularly on the North and West Shores of the mentioned islands, face immediate risks. This includes restaurants with ocean views, retail shops near beaches, and service providers whose access or operations rely on proximity to the coast. Expect potential for:
- Physical Damage: Lower levels and outdoor seating areas are susceptible to wave inundation and debris impact. Estimated repair costs can range from minor cleanup fees to extensive structural repairs, potentially in the thousands of dollars, if not adequately protected.
- Temporary Closures: Access to businesses may be restricted by emergency services or hazardous conditions, leading to immediate loss of revenue. This could last from 24 hours to several days, depending on the severity and duration of the surf.
- Staffing Disruptions: Employees may be unable to travel to work due to hazardous road conditions or personal property concerns.
Real Estate Owners (real-estate)
Property owners with beachfront or near-coastal land and structures are at high risk.
- Structural Damage: Direct impact from wave energy can cause erosion undermining foundations, impact on seawalls, and direct damage to buildings. Insurance deductibles for such events can range from 1% to 5% of the property value, potentially translating to tens of thousands of dollars for high-value coastal properties.
- Loss of Access: Roads and driveways leading to properties may become impassable due to high water, sand, or debris.
- Insurance Implications: This event may trigger insurance claims, potentially affecting future premiums or policy availability.
Tourism Operators (tourism-operator)
Businesses heavily reliant on ocean activities and beach access will experience immediate disruption.
- Tour Cancellations: Ocean-based tours (snorkeling, surfing lessons, boat trips) will be canceled, leading to direct revenue loss. For operators running multiple tours daily, this could mean a 100% loss of income for 1-3 days.
- Hotel Impact: Guests may experience reduced amenity access (beach, pool decks near surf), leading to potential complaints or requests for compensation. Hotel occupancy might see a short-term dip if travelers postpone or cancel bookings.
- Reputational Risk: Safety concerns and cancellation of advertised activities can negatively impact online reviews and future bookings.
Agriculture & Food Producers (agriculture)
While most agricultural operations are inland, those with coastal infrastructure or relying on sea transport face unique challenges.
- Export Delays: Any facilities for loading produce or seafood onto smaller vessels at coastal docks may need to cease operations, causing delays for time-sensitive exports.
- Infrastructure Risk: Coastal farms or aquaculture operations may be at risk of saltwater intrusion or direct damage to equipment if located near the immediate surf zone.
Second-Order Effects
The immediate impact of high surf extends beyond direct physical damage. Coastal access restrictions and closures can slow down the delivery of essential goods to businesses and residences, mirroring small-scale supply chain disruptions. For the tourism sector, even brief closures can lead to negative publicity, potentially dampening demand for a few weeks if travelers perceive Hawaii as experiencing constant disruptive weather events. Furthermore, the cost of securing properties and potential repairs diverts capital that could otherwise be invested in business growth or expansion, indirectly impacting the broader local economy.
- Coastal closures → delayed delivery of restaurant supplies → increased food waste and potential spoilage for affected businesses.
- Tourism cancellations → reduced visitor spending → lower demand for local retail and services in tourist-heavy areas.
- Property damage repair needs → increased demand for construction and repair services → potential temporary strain on local contractors.
What to Do
Small Business Operators
Act Now: Prioritize securing all outdoor assets, including furniture, signage, and any loose equipment. Review your emergency preparedness plan, ensuring staff know protocols for closure and communication. If your business is directly coastal, consider temporary boarding up of windows and doors. Communicate any operational changes to customers immediately via social media, email, or website updates to manage expectations and avoid wasted trips.
Action Details: "Small business operators should immediately secure all outdoor equipment, merchandise, and signage by end of day, February 4th. Review emergency communication plans for staff and customers regarding potential closures up to 72 hours, and consider temporary protective measures for coastal-facing properties to prevent damage costs estimated at $500 - $5,000+ for minor to moderate damage."
Real Estate Owners
Act Now: Conduct an immediate assessment of your property's vulnerability. Secure any removable items on decks or balconies. Ensure drainage systems are clear. If you have coastal properties, consider deploying temporary barriers or sandbags as a last resort, and notify your insurance provider of potential risk exposure.
Action Details: "Real estate owners should immediately secure loose outdoor items, clear drainage areas, and assess the need for temporary protective measures like sandbags for high-risk coastal properties before the surf peaks at 45 feet. Contact insurance providers if significant risk of damage is present."
Tourism Operators
Act Now: Cancel all ocean-based tours scheduled for the duration of the High Surf Warning. Notify affected customers immediately and offer rescheduling options or refunds. Review hotel guest advisories and communicate any restricted access to beaches or water activities. Prepare for potential increased guest service requests related to altered plans.
Action Details: "Tourism operators must immediately cancel all scheduled ocean tours for February 4th-6th, offering affected customers prompt rescheduling or full refunds to mitigate negative customer experience and potential loss of future bookings. Communicate beach and pool access limitations to hotel guests proactively."
Agriculture & Food Producers
Watch: Monitor local port and dock conditions if you have coastal loading operations. If operations are impacted, notify relevant buyers and logistics partners immediately about potential delays. Assess any coastal-facing farm infrastructure for potential saltwater inundation risks and take protective measures if necessary.
Action Details: "Agriculture and food producers with coastal export operations should monitor conditions at loading docks and confirm with logistics partners any schedule changes or delays due to the high surf. While direct damage risk is lower for most inland operations, assess any vulnerable coastal equipment or infrastructure for immediate protection."
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