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Pacific Northwest Visitor Influx Expected: New Direct Flights Increase Competition and Opportunity

·7 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

Hawaiian Airlines' expansion of direct flights from Boise and Spokane from December through spring 2027 will redirect visitor traffic and potentially alter airfare dynamics. Tourism operators and small businesses should monitor shifts in visitor origins and adjust marketing strategies to capitalize on new markets while preparing for increased competition.

  • Tourism Operators: Expect a potential increase in visitor volume from the Pacific Northwest, necessitating adjustments to capacity and marketing. Prepare for a competitive landscape with potentially lower visitor acquisition costs from these new markets.
  • Small Business Operators: Increased visitor numbers may translate to higher demand for services and retail, but also potential wage pressures if labor markets tighten earlier than anticipated.
  • Real Estate Owners: Monitor property demand in tourist-heavy areas as visitor demographics may shift.
  • Action: Monitor visitor arrival data from the Pacific Northwest starting Q1 2025 and track airfare trends to refine marketing spend and staffing levels.

Watch & Prepare

The new routes run through spring 2027, allowing ample time for businesses to adjust marketing and staffing, but ignoring potential shifts in visitor demographics could lead to missed opportunities.

Watch visitor arrival numbers originating from Boise (BOI) and Spokane (GEG) starting Q1 2025 and aggregate airfare costs for these routes. If arrival numbers show a sustained increase of over 10% per quarter and airfares remain competitive, consider increasing targeted marketing spend by 15% for these regions and review staffing for potential peak demand.

Who's Affected
Tourism OperatorsReal Estate OwnersSmall Business Operators
Ripple Effects
  • →Increased visitor traffic from Pacific Northwest → higher demand for local services (tours, dining, transport) → potential wage pressure for service staff → increased cost of living for residents
A vibrant aerial view of Waikiki Beach with luxurious hotels and sunlit turquoise ocean.
Photo by Jess Loiterton

The Change

Hawaiian Airlines is launching new direct flight services connecting Boise, Idaho, and Spokane, Washington, to Hawaii starting in December 2024, and these routes are scheduled to operate through spring 2027. This strategic expansion aims to tap into the growing demand from the Pacific Northwest market. Concurrently, Hawaiian Airlines is discontinuing its direct route to Auckland, New Zealand, citing high fuel costs and unfavorable exchange rates as key factors influencing this decision. The focus is shifting towards high-potential domestic routes that offer a more stable return on investment.

Who's Affected

Tourism Operators (Hotels, Tour Companies, Vacation Rentals, Hospitality Businesses): The introduction of these new direct flights is poised to increase the overall volume of tourists arriving from the Pacific Northwest. This could mean higher occupancy rates and increased demand for tours and services. However, it also signifies a more competitive environment, as marketing efforts may need to target these specific flight origins more aggressively. Businesses that can adapt their offerings and marketing to cater to this demographic may see significant gains. Conversely, operators heavily reliant on markets served by the now-defunct Auckland route will need to pivot their strategies.

Small Business Operators (Restaurants, Retail, Services): An influx of visitors from the Pacific Northwest is likely to boost consumer spending in key tourist areas. Restaurants and retail establishments could experience increased foot traffic and higher sales volumes. However, this increased demand may also exert upward pressure on wages for service staff if the local labor market becomes more competitive due to a larger tourist base requiring more support. Businesses should anticipate potential shifts in customer demographics and tailor their services accordingly. For businesses operating in areas that previously attracted a significant number of visitors from New Zealand, a potential decrease in that specific segment might require reorientation of marketing and inventory.

Real Estate Owners (Property Owners, Developers, Landlords): While direct impacts on real estate are less immediate, shifts in visitor demographics can influence demand for short-term and long-term rentals in popular tourist destinations. Property owners in areas that see a substantial increase in Pacific Northwest visitors might experience heightened demand for rental properties or vacation accommodations. This could also influence rental rates and property values over time. Developers might consider market gaps for hospitality-related services catering to this demographic.

Second-Order Effects

Hawaii's isolated economy means changes in airline capacity and visitor origins have cascading effects. The addition of new routes from the Pacific Northwest could lead to increased demand for ground transportation, local tours, and a broader range of hospitality services, potentially driving up wages in these sectors. This, in turn, could put further pressure on the cost of living for residents. Moreover, sustained higher visitor numbers, even from new markets, can strain local infrastructure and resources, indirectly impacting the operational costs for businesses through increased demand for utilities and services.

What to Do

Tourism Operators: Begin analyzing visitor arrival data, paying close attention to trends from Idaho and Washington starting in the first quarter of 2025. Review your current marketing strategies to identify opportunities to target these new traveler origins. Assess your capacity for increased visitor numbers, particularly regarding staffing and resource allocation, and consider adjusting pricing or package deals to attract this new demographic. Explore partnerships with the airlines or travel agencies specializing in Pacific Northwest markets.

Small Business Operators: Monitor foot traffic and sales data to discern any changes attributable to these new flight routes. Update marketing materials and online presence to be more inclusive of potential visitors from the Pacific Northwest. Evaluate staffing levels and consider proactive recruitment or training to meet potential increases in demand. Be prepared to adapt inventory and service offerings based on any emerging preferences from this visitor segment.

Real Estate Owners: Keep abreast of local rental market trends in tourist-heavy areas. If you own properties suitable for short-term or long-term rentals in areas experiencing an increase in Pacific Northwest tourists, assess potential for demand growth and re-evaluate rental pricing strategies. For developers, consider market research into hospitality needs that may arise from a shift in visitor origins.

Watch: Visitor arrival numbers originating from Boise (BOI) and Spokane (GEG) starting Q1 2025 and aggregate airfare costs for these routes. If arrival numbers show a sustained increase of over 10% per quarter and airfares remain competitive, consider increasing targeted marketing spend by 15% for these regions and review staffing for potential peak demand.

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