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Potential Tropical Cyclone Threatens Supply Chain and Tourism Operations

·7 min read·👀 Watch

Executive Summary

An area of disturbed weather, Invest 93C, is being monitored for potential development into a tropical cyclone approaching Hawaiʻi. Tourism operators and agriculture producers face potential disruptions if the storm impacts the islands, requiring immediate review of contingency plans.

  • Tourism Operators: Risk of flight cancellations, reduced bookings, and potential property damage.
  • Agriculture Producers: Threat of crop damage, disrupted harvesting, and supply chain delays.
  • Small Business Operators: Potential for supply chain disruptions and reduced foot traffic.
  • Real Estate Owners: Risk of property damage and potential impact on rental occupancy.
  • Action: Review and activate emergency preparedness plans by August 15.

Watch & Prepare

High PriorityOngoing monitoring, with potential action required as the storm develops.

Failure to prepare for a potential cyclone could lead to significant operational disruptions, damage, and loss of revenue if it impacts the islands.

Monitor the [National Weather Service](https://www.weather.gov/hfo/) and [Central Pacific Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshhs/text/latest_C.shtml) for official updates on Invest 93C's track and intensity. Activate your emergency preparedness plans by August 15 if the forecast indicates a significant threat to your operational area, and continue to monitor forecasts daily.

Who's Affected
Tourism OperatorsAgriculture & Food ProducersSmall Business OperatorsReal Estate Owners
Ripple Effects
  • →Reduced shipping capacity → imported goods shortages → increased consumer prices
  • →Disrupted supply chains → higher operating costs for businesses
  • →Potential property damage → strain on local repair resources → increased construction costs
Powerful ocean waves crashing against rocks under a dark, stormy sky.
Photo by Julia Volk

Potential Tropical Cyclone Threatens Supply Chain and Tourism Operations

Executive Brief

An area of disturbed weather, Invest 93C, is being monitored for potential development into a tropical cyclone approaching Hawaiʻi. Tourism operators and agriculture producers face potential disruptions if the storm impacts the islands, requiring immediate review of contingency plans.

  • Tourism Operators: Risk of flight cancellations, reduced bookings, and potential property damage.
  • Agriculture Producers: Threat of crop damage, disrupted harvesting, and supply chain delays.
  • Small Business Operators: Potential for supply chain disruptions and reduced foot traffic.
  • Real Estate Owners: Risk of property damage and potential impact on rental occupancy.
  • Action: Review and activate emergency preparedness plans by August 15.

The Change

The National Weather Service (NWS) is actively monitoring an area of disturbed weather designated as Invest 93C, located to the southwest of Hawaiʻi. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days as it tracks towards the Hawaiian Islands. While the exact track and intensity are uncertain at this early stage, the proximity necessitates heightened awareness and preparedness across all sectors of the Hawaiian economy. The NWS will provide updated forecasts as the system evolves.

Who's Affected?

Tourism Operators: Businesses heavily reliant on visitor arrivals and smooth operations, including hotels, tour operators, vacation rental managers, and associated hospitality services, are at significant risk. Potential impacts include flight cancellations leading to reduced bookings, cancellations of tours and activities, and direct damage to properties from high winds, heavy rainfall, or storm surge. A delay in preparation could result in significant revenue loss and reputational damage if operations are disrupted without adequate contingency plans.

Agriculture & Food Producers: Farmers, ranchers, and food producers face threats to crops, livestock, and essential infrastructure. Heavy rains can lead to flooding and crop damage, while high winds can cause physical destruction. Harvesting schedules may be severely disrupted, and damage to transportation networks or ports could impede the movement of goods, impacting both local supply chains and export markets. The Jones Act, which governs inter-island shipping, could also face disruptions, further complicating logistics.

Small Business Operators: Retail stores, restaurants, and service-based businesses are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions if incoming goods are delayed or damaged. Reduced foot traffic due to weather advisories or evacuations could impact sales. Employee safety and availability may also be concerns, requiring businesses to have plans for remote work or adjusted operating hours. Small businesses often have the least resilience to unexpected disruptions.

Real Estate Owners: Property owners, landlords, and developers should assess potential risks of damage from high winds, flooding, and storm surge. Properties in coastal or low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable. Rental occupancy rates could temporarily decrease due to cancellations or displacement. Developers should also consider potential delays in construction projects due to weather-related work stoppages.

Second-Order Effects

A significant storm impacting Hawaiʻi would exacerbate existing logistical challenges. Reduced shipping capacity due to port closures or damage could lead to shortages of imported goods, driving up prices for essential supplies and consumer products. This, in turn, would increase operating costs for businesses and the cost of living for residents, potentially impacting consumer spending and tourism demand in the medium term. Furthermore, any widespread damage could strain local repair and construction resources, leading to higher costs and longer timelines for recovery efforts.

What to Do

Tourism Operators:

  • Act Now: Review and update your business continuity and emergency preparedness plans immediately. This includes evacuation procedures, communication protocols with staff and guests, and arrangements with suppliers. Confirm insurance coverage for storm-related damage and business interruption. Monitor flight advisories and coordinate with airlines and travel agencies regarding potential cancellations and rebookings. Activate your communication plan to inform guests and stakeholders.

Agriculture & Food Producers:

  • Act Now: Secure crops, equipment, and livestock. Reinforce any vulnerable structures. Ensure drainage systems are clear to mitigate flooding. Communicate with your supply chain partners regarding potential delays. Assess irrigation needs in advance of potential heavy rainfall.

Small Business Operators:

  • Act Now: Review your inventory and supply chain vulnerabilities. Secure outdoor signage and equipment. Communicate with employees regarding safety protocols and potential operational changes. Ensure you have a plan for essential services if power is disrupted. If possible, consider a plan for remote work for administrative tasks.

Real Estate Owners:

  • Act Now: Secure properties, especially those in vulnerable locations. Trim trees and clear debris around structures. Review insurance policies. Communicate with tenants about safety precautions and emergency procedures. Ensure adequate supplies of essential materials for any immediate post-storm repairs.

Action Details

Monitor the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center for official updates on Invest 93C's track and intensity. Activate your emergency preparedness plans by August 15 if the forecast indicates a significant threat to your operational area, and continue to monitor forecasts daily.

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