Severe Weather Threatens Operations: Businesses Face Disruptions Feb 7-9

Severe weather is projected to sweep across all Hawaiian Islands from Saturday, February 7th, through Monday, February 9th, with heightened risks of dangerous conditions including high winds, heavy rainfall, and potential flooding from Sunday evening into Monday. The Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA) is urging swift preparation.

This forecast necessitates immediate activation of business continuity and disaster preparedness plans for all sectors. Failure to prepare risks significant operational downtime, unrecoverable property damage, and substantial revenue loss across affected islands.

Who's Affected

Small Business Operators

Operators of restaurants, retail shops, service businesses, and local franchises should anticipate potential temporary closures due to safety concerns, power outages, and staff availability. Immediate impacts include:

• Inventory Risk: Heavy rainfall and potential flooding pose a direct threat to perishable goods, stock, and equipment, especially for businesses located in flood-prone areas. An estimated 10-20% of physical inventory could be at risk without proper protective measures.
• Staffing Shortages: Employees may be unable to commute safely, leading to reduced operational capacity or temporary shutdowns. Many businesses may need to offer hazard pay or flexible scheduling, increasing immediate operating costs.
• Customer Access: Road closures and public advisories will likely deter customer traffic, directly impacting sales and service revenue. A projected 30-50% drop in foot traffic is possible on Sunday and Monday.

Real Estate Owners

Property owners, developers, landlords, and property managers must assess and mitigate risks to physical assets:

• Property Damage: High winds can cause damage to roofs, windows, and external structures. Heavy rainfall increases the risk of water intrusion, mold, and damage to foundations and landscaping. Costs for emergency repairs could range from hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars per property, depending on scale.
• Utility Disruptions: Widespread power outages are probable, impacting businesses and residences reliant on electricity for operations, climate control, and security systems.
• Access Limitations: Severe weather can impede access for property managers, maintenance crews, and emergency services, delaying critical repairs.

Tourism Operators

Hotels, tour companies, vacation rental managers, and other hospitality businesses face immediate and significant impacts:

• Flight Cancellations & Delays: Major airlines operating to and from Hawaii are likely to cancel flights, stranding current visitors and preventing new arrivals. This can lead to mass cancellations and reschedule requests.
• Reduced Occupancy & Bookings: Travel advisories will discourage new bookings and prompt cancellations. Hotels could see occupancy rates drop by 20-40% during the event. Vacation rental bookings are particularly vulnerable to last-minute cancellations.
• Activity Disruption: Tours, excursions, and outdoor dining experiences will be cancelled due to safety concerns and hazardous conditions, leading to direct revenue loss.

Agriculture & Food Producers

Farmers, ranchers, food producers, and aquaculture operators are at high risk of direct losses:

• Crop Damage: High winds can flatten crops, and heavy rainfall can cause root rot, soil erosion, and extensive damage to fruits and vegetables. Certain high-value crops could see 50-75% loss if not adequately protected.
• Livestock Vulnerability: Animals are susceptible to stress, injury, and death from extreme weather. Producers need to ensure adequate shelter and secure pastures.
• Harvesting & Transportation: Severe weather will halt harvesting operations and make transportation of produce to markets, processing facilities, or export ports impossible, leading to spoilage and lost sales.

Second-Order Effects

In Hawaii's isolated and constrained economy, this severe weather event can trigger a cascade of secondary impacts:

• Supply Chain Disruptions: Damaged infrastructure (roads, ports) and weather-related shutdowns of food producers and distribution centers can lead to immediate shortages of essential goods, including groceries and critical business supplies. This could temporarily increase prices for remaining goods.
• Increased Demand for Emergency Services & Repair Contractors: A widespread event will put significant strain on local emergency responders and a limited pool of repair contractors. This can lead to delayed responses for non-critical issues and inflated prices for repair services in the weeks following the storm.
• Tourism Downturn Ripple: Flight cancellations and safety concerns can create a temporary but significant drop in visitor arrivals, impacting not only direct tourism businesses but also related retail and service sectors that rely on tourist spending.

What to Do

Given the immediate timeline, proactive steps are critical for all affected roles. The window for effective preparation closes by Saturday evening.

Small Business Operators

Act Now: Implement your storm preparedness plan by Saturday, February 7th.

1. Secure Inventory & Assets: Move perishable goods to secure, cooler locations. Secure outdoor furniture, signage, and equipment. For ground-level inventory, consider elevating stock if flooding is a risk.
2. Communicate with Staff: Confirm contingency staffing plans. Ensure employees have a safe way to get to and from work or have clear instructions on closures. Consider providing emergency supplies or financial assistance for preparedness.
3. Review Insurance: Confirm your insurance policy covers storm damage, flood damage, and business interruption. Understand your deductibles and claims process.
4. Prepare for Utilities: Have backup power sources (generators, charged power banks) ready if possible. Monitor utility provider advisories.
5. Customer Communication: Prepare pre-written messages for social media and email announcing potential closures or service disruptions. Update business hours on online platforms.

Real Estate Owners

Act Now: Assess and secure properties before Sunday, February 9th.

1. Exterior Inspection: Secure or remove any loose outdoor items (furniture, decorations, debris) that could become projectiles in high winds. Clear gutters and storm drains to prevent water buildup.
2. Property Vulnerability Assessment: Identify properties in flood-prone areas or those with known roof or window weaknesses. Take immediate steps to reinforce vulnerable areas if feasible.
3. Tenant Communication: Inform tenants of expected weather conditions and provide safety guidelines. Advise them on how to secure their own property and report damage.
4. Secure Utilities: Ensure backup power for essential systems (e.g., security, sump pumps) is functional. Have contact information for utility repair services readily available.
5. Document Condition: Take photos or videos of property conditions before the weather event to aid in potential insurance claims.

Tourism Operators

Act Now: Prepare for cancellations and operational pauses by Saturday, February 7th.

1. Flight Monitoring: Continuously monitor airline advisories and passenger communications. Proactively reach out to guests with expiring reservations to rebook or arrange refunds.
2. Guest Communication: Inform current guests about the severe weather forecast and any operational changes or cancellations. Provide safety information and resources.
3. Activity & Tour Cancellations: Preemptively cancel outdoor and high-risk tours and activities for Sunday and Monday. Develop flexible rebooking policies.
4. Staffing Adjustments: Prepare for reduced staffing needs due to cancellations and potential travel difficulties for employees.
5. Property Securing: For hotels and resorts, ensure all outdoor amenities, furniture, and loose items are secured. Check drainage systems.

Agriculture & Food Producers

Act Now: Protect crops, livestock, and infrastructure by Saturday, February 7th.

1. Crop Protection: For high-value or vulnerable crops, implement protective measures such as covering with tarps, reinforcing greenhouses, or harvesting immediately if feasible and safe.
2. Livestock Sheltering: Ensure livestock have access to secure, well-drained shelter. Move animals from exposed areas.
3. Secure Equipment & Supplies: Store or secure farm equipment, irrigation systems, and other vulnerable supplies to prevent wind damage.
4. Water Management: Check and clear drainage ditches and culverts to manage heavy rainfall. Consider if irrigation systems need to be shut off or adjusted.
5. Harvest Prioritization: Identify crops that can be harvested before the severe weather hits and prioritize those with the shortest shelf life or highest risk of damage. Coordinate with transporters for immediate removal if possible.

Action Details

All businesses and property owners must activate their emergency preparedness and business continuity plans immediately, ideally by Saturday, February 7th, to secure assets, protect staff, and mitigate operational and financial losses expected from severe weather impacting the islands through Monday, February 9th.