The Change
Decades of extensive military training across the Hawaiian Islands have resulted in a significant and widespread presence of unexploded military munitions (UXO), including bombs, artillery shells, and other ordnance. While the exact quantities and locations are not fully documented, the risk is notably higher in former training ranges and impact areas. The challenge of identifying, surveying, and safely removing these materials is substantial, posing a persistent threat to public safety and a complicating factor for any land-use or development activities. This situation is not new, but as developable land becomes scarcer and development pressures increase, the implications of UXO presence are becoming more pronounced and costly. There is no current hard deadline for complete removal, but development projects in affected areas will continue to be subject to rigorous safety protocols and potential remediation requirements.
Who's Affected
Real Estate Owners and Developers: Property owners, particularly those with land in or near former military training areas, face potential discovery of UXO during any ground disturbance, from surveys to construction. This can lead to significant project delays, increased costs for specialized UXO detection and removal services, and the need for extensive environmental impact assessments. Permitting processes may become more complex and time-consuming, potentially adding months or even years to project timelines. Lease agreements might also need to account for these risks.
Investors: Real estate investors, venture capitalists, and other financial stakeholders need to incorporate UXO risk into their due diligence for projects in Hawaii. The possibility of unforeseen remediation costs and development delays can directly impact project ROI and timelines. Areas with a high probability of UXO contamination may present a higher risk profile, potentially deterring investment or requiring a higher risk premium.
Entrepreneurs and Startups: For startups and growing businesses that require physical space or land for their operations – such as manufacturing, agriculture, or even large-scale research facilities – the presence of UXO can represent an unforeseen scaling barrier. Securing land, obtaining permits, and initiating construction could be unexpectedly complicated and expensive, diverting crucial capital and time away from core business activities.
Agriculture and Food Producers: Farmers and ranchers looking to acquire or expand their use of land, especially in historically undeveloped or former military-use areas, must consider the potential for UXO. Ground-breaking for new cultivation, irrigation system installation, or livestock facilities could be halted or significantly delayed if UXO is discovered. The cost of safety assessments and potential removal could render certain land parcels economically unviable for agricultural purposes.
Second-Order Effects
Increased UXO survey and remediation costs for development projects → longer project timelines and higher construction expenses → reduced supply of new housing and commercial spaces → upward pressure on existing property values and rental rates → further exacerbating Hawaii's already high cost of living and doing business. This can also impact the availability of land for crucial sectors like agriculture, potentially increasing reliance on imported food. Higher development costs may also discourage new businesses, limiting job creation and economic diversification.
What to Do
Given the persistent and evolving nature of UXO risks in Hawaii, a 'watch' approach is recommended for affected roles. The primary action is to stay informed about known UXO-affected areas and to proactively incorporate UXO assessments into land-use planning and investment due diligence.
Real Estate Owners and Developers: Monitor reports and advisories from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Hawaii Department of Health, and local county planning departments regarding UXO survey data and remediation progress. Before acquiring new land or initiating major construction, commission thorough UXO Phase I Environmental Site Assessments and be prepared for potential Phase II (assessment) and Phase III (remediation) requirements. Factor potential delays and costs into project budgets and timelines.
Investors: Integrate UXO risk assessment into your standard due diligence checklist for Hawaiian real estate and development projects. Understand the historical land use of potential investment sites. Consult with environmental and land-use experts to gauge the potential impact of UXO on project viability and returns. Consider diversifying investments across areas with lower documented UXO risks.
Entrepreneurs and Startups: If your business model relies on physical expansion or new construction in Hawaii, research the historical land use of potential sites thoroughly. Consult with local planning and environmental consultants early in the site selection process to understand potential UXO-related hurdles. Allocate contingency funds for unexpected delays or costs associated with site clearing and remediation.
Agriculture and Food Producers: When considering land acquisition for agricultural purposes, prioritize sites with low documented UXO risk. Consult the relevant state and federal agencies for historical land use data. If a parcel is in a potentially affected area, include costs for specialized UXO surveys and potential remediation in your farm expansion feasibility studies.
Monitoring Trigger Conditions: Watch for any new public advisories from responsible agencies (e.g., Army Corps of Engineers, state environmental departments) detailing newly identified UXO sites or updated risk assessments. Significant delays in land development projects due to UXO discovery in your area of interest or a neighboring, similar parcel should serve as an immediate trigger for enhanced due diligence on any of your own holdings or potential acquisitions. Increased regulatory requirements or public safety concerns related to UXO could also signal a need for proactive assessment.
